Earthquake Casualty Models Within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul S.; Porter, Keith; Hearne, Michael

doi:10.1007/978-90-481-9455-1_6

Cited by 86 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…The empirical approach consists of directly correlating the magnitude/intensity of the earthquake and the size of the population in the area at times of the earthquake, based on historic earthquake statistics (Samadjieva and Badel 2002;Jaiswal and Wald 2010a). The semiempirical approach builds on the empirical approach by additionally accounting for the types of buildings that characterize the area and damage rates according to the different structures (Jaiswal and Wald 2010b). The purely analytic approach predicts behavior of buildings and their effects on individuals inside them, based on seismic hazard analysis (Porter et al 2008;Spence and So 2009).…”

Section: Earthquake Casualty Assessment Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating epidemiological and engineering approaches in the assessment of human casualties in earthquakes

et al. 2015

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Earthquakes pose substantial risks of human health. Preparedness and mitigation strategies can reduce earthquake-related injuries and deaths and information from casualty models that predict earthquake outcomes can help communities prepare. This study identifies epidemiologic and medical risk factors for earthquake casualties, and compares them with engineering casualty models for the purpose of providing evidence that integrates these approaches. It aims to improve earthquake casualty modeling and to offer better accurate estimations. Epidemiological studies that used analytical designs and reported risk factors related to earthquake-induced casualties and studies that examined the association between medical preparedness and earthquake-induced casualties were reviewed. Engineering casualty estimation models were reviewed to identify which risk factors were considered in the models. Epidemiological studies identified the following risk factors: gender, age, socioeconomic status, physical disability and human behavior. Medical preparedness factors were also related to earthquake-induced injury and death. Global casualty estimation models do not currently consider these factors. This study provides evidence that integrating demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population and levels of medical preparedness into the existing casualty estimation models may improve their accuracy.

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Section: Earthquake Casualty Assessment Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating epidemiological and engineering approaches in the assessment of human casualties in earthquakes

et al. 2015

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“…These functions relate the expected hazard intensities with the expected consequences and efforts have been made worldwide to develop relationships that allow estimating casualties, both in terms of injured and deaths, associated to earthquakes (Coburn and Spence 2002;FEMA 2003;Spence and So 2009;Jaiswal and Wald 2010;Jaiswal et al 2011) which are based mostly on post-earthquake surveys. It is well-known that this is a difficult task since high variability in the number of deaths can be observed from event to event, even when dealing with earthquakes of similar magnitudes, depths and building stock characteristics.…”

Section: Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic estimation of annual lost economic production due to premature deaths because of earthquakes

Salgado‐Gálvez

Bernal

Barbat

et al. 2015

Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal

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This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis Group in Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal on 2016, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/10807039.2015.1095072A methodology to estimate, in a probabilistic way, the annual cost to society of premature deaths because of earthquakes is proposed in this article. The methodology makes use of results obtained by means of prospective and probabilistic seismic risk assessments where expected deaths caused by the collapse of buildings are obtained. Those results, combined with demographic and macroeconomic indicators such as the age distribution, life expectancy at birth, and per capita gross domestic product, are used to estimate the cost to society in terms of lost productivity due to premature mortality because of earthquakes. The proposed methodology does not attempt to estimate nor assign a cost to human lives at any stage, but the one associated to lost productivity at the societal level. One of the descriptors of the methodology is part of the components of the disability adjusted life year, a widely used metric in the public health field that estimates the burden of diseases based mostly on historical data. As an example, the methodology is applied to Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, finding that the cost of lost productivity due to premature mortality because of earthquakes has a similar order of magnitude to the direct physical losses in the public and private building stock calculated in a previous probabilistic seismic risk assessment.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

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“…There are different computer-based modeling approaches 1 that are well known and extensively used based on the requirements and zone of a particular study (IDNDR 1999;FEMA 2003;Elnashai and Hajjar 2006;Hancilar et al 2010;Jaiswal et al 2011;CAPRA 2012;GEM 2012). This study uses the Central American Probabilistic Risk Wu et al (2005) and Bhaduri et al (2007) Assessment (CAPRA) model, a recently developed methodology that was introduced for multihazard probabilistic and deterministic risk assessment.…”

Section: Population Distribution and Loss Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Temporal Population Distribution on Earthquake Loss Estimation: A Case Study on Sylhet, Bangladesh

Ara

2014

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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To estimate human loss in an earthquake-prone area, it is necessary to analyze the role played by the spatiotemporal distribution of the area's resident population. In order to evaluate earthquake impact, this article focuses on the spatiotemporal distribution of population and five scenario earthquakes that form the basis for loss estimation in the city of Sylhet, Bangladesh. Four temporal contexts (weekday, weekly holiday, the 30 days of Ramadan, and strike days) expand the more typical daytime and nighttime settings in which to examine hazard risk. The population distribution for every 2 hour interval in a day is developed for each type of day. A relationship between the occupancy classes and average space (persons per 100 m 2 ) is used to distribute people in each building regardless of building locations. A total daytime and nighttime population is obtained for each building and the estimated nighttime population is used to model the population for four temporal scenarios in a year based on different factors and weights. The resulting data are employed to estimate population loss for each of the temporal and earthquake scenarios. This study used building-specific human vulnerability curves developed by the Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) to obtain possible loss of life estimates. The results reveal that there is a high positive correlation between the spatiotemporal distribution of population and the potential number of casualties.

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Earthquake Casualty Models Within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System

Cited by 86 publications

References 10 publications

Integrating epidemiological and engineering approaches in the assessment of human casualties in earthquakes

Integrating epidemiological and engineering approaches in the assessment of human casualties in earthquakes

Probabilistic estimation of annual lost economic production due to premature deaths because of earthquakes

Impact of Temporal Population Distribution on Earthquake Loss Estimation: A Case Study on Sylhet, Bangladesh

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