2018
DOI: 10.4197/islec.31-2.10
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Early Warning to Banking Crises in the Dual Financial System in Indonesia: The Markov Switching Approach

Abstract: This research aims at detecting early indicators that cause conventional banking and Islamic banking crises, identifying the longest crisis period for both types of banks, and comparing the stability between the two kinds of banks. The method used is the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach. This study uses secondary data obtained from official sources and in monthly form from January 2004 to March 2017. The results show that Islamic banking is more stable against internal and external shoc… Show more

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Cited by 44 publications
(43 citation statements)
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“…Selanjutnya gejala-gejala krisis dapat teridentifikasi sedemikian rupa sehingga kerugian yang potensial diderita oleh masyarakat Indonesia akibat krisis yang mungkin terjadi dapat diminimalkan. Nurfalah et al (2018) dan Rani et al (2017) misalnya melakukan pengamatan terkait sistem deteksi dini krisis perbankan pada sistem moneter ganda, termasuk mengukur tingkat produktivitas industri perbankan di Indonesia.…”
unclassified
“…Selanjutnya gejala-gejala krisis dapat teridentifikasi sedemikian rupa sehingga kerugian yang potensial diderita oleh masyarakat Indonesia akibat krisis yang mungkin terjadi dapat diminimalkan. Nurfalah et al (2018) dan Rani et al (2017) misalnya melakukan pengamatan terkait sistem deteksi dini krisis perbankan pada sistem moneter ganda, termasuk mengukur tingkat produktivitas industri perbankan di Indonesia.…”
unclassified
“…Source: BPS Indonesia and www.macrotrend.net, processed data Previous studies have discussed a lot about the stability of Islamic banking in this study to see the level of stability of Islamic banking against internal and external shocks with several indicators studied. Nurfalah et al (2018) examined conventional banking and Islamic banking in Indonesia, the results of which explained that the significant stability indicators of Islamic banking were bank deposits and CA/GDP. Zahra, Ascarya, and Huda (2018) examined the measurement of the stability of conventional banking and Islamic banking in Indonesia, wherewith the Z-score indicator Islamic banking is more stable than conventional banking.…”
Section: Figure 1 Economic Growth Of Indonesia Malaysia and Pakistan 2011-2019mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Terutama jika dibandingkan dengan kondisi industri keuangan konvensional yang telah lebih dahulu eksis. Misalnya, hasil penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Nurfalah et al (2018) yang menyatakan bahwa perbankan syariah relatif lebih stabil dibandingkan dengan perbankan konvensional dalam menghadapi guncangan, baik dari internal maupun eksternal. Hal ini menjadi temuan menarik yang perlu dibuktikan melalui berbagai riset di masa mendatang.…”
Section: Pendahuluanunclassified