Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

Abstract

Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + −1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

Detecting early-warning signals for influenza A pandemic based on protein dynamical network biomarkers

“…The influenza A broke out in China in 2006. Global influenza pandemic caused by the new influenza A virus in 2009, of which 0.3 million people died (Ren and Gao, 2011, Girard et al, 2010). As shown in Fig.…”