Early Predictors of Acute Pancreatitis Related In-Hospital Mortality: How Practical Are They?

Abstract

Background/Purpose: Early assessment of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) is a highly challenge for a physicians' practice to improve the management and decrease the mortality. We aimed to determine early prognostic factors for AP related in-hospital mortality. Methods: Upon hospital admission, predictors of AP related in-hospital mortality were prospectively assessed using regression analysis over 129 consecutive AP patients. Predictive abilities of these prognostic factors were compared using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: AP related in-hospital mortality was 10.9%. Red cell distribution (RDW), serum creatinine, glucose and albumin were associated with AP mortality. RDW had the highest AUC followed by serum creatinine and albumin (AUC: 914, 95% CI: 0.797-0.975; 0.797, 95% CI: 0.695-0.878; 0.798, 95% CI: 0.677-0.865 respectively). The cutoff with the best ability to predict in-hospital mortality was 14.2 for RDW. By coupling RDW and serum creatinine, AUC was improved to 0.940, 95% CI: 0.839-0.986. Conclusion: RDW, serum creatinine, albumin, and glucose even with borderline level changes may predict AP related in-hospital mortality, where, RDW has the highest prognostic accuracy. Coupling RDW and serum creatinine model significantly improves their predictive accuracy that may aid in further improvement of the quality of care of AP patients.