Early Prediction of Medical Student Performance on Initial Licensing Examinations

Glaros, Alan G.; Hanson, Andréa; Adkison, Linda R.

doi:10.1007/s40670-014-0053-y

Cited by 7 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Among all courses, Renal System II Course (REN II), Cardiovascular System I (CV I) and II Courses (CV II), and Respiratory System II Course (RESP II) were the strongest predictors, according to the correlation coefficients and the backward stepwise logistic regression. Similar to our findings, Glaros et al also have identified that the second semester Renal section course is the number one predictor for COMLEX 1 scores among all preclinical courses in a traditional organ system curriculum at their institution [ 9 ]. In our study, Renal System II (REN II), Cardiovascular System II (CV II), and Respiratory System II (RESP II) are courses in the third-semester.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Performance in the subject of pharmacology in an osteopathic medical school curriculum has also been found to strongly correlate with performance on COMLEX 1 [ 8 ]. For the last 20 years, many allopathic medical schools, as well as osteopathic medical schools, have implemented an organ-system based curriculum, but studies that have specifically connected an organ-system based curriculum and COMLEX 1 performance are rare [ 9 ]. Glaros et al have found that the highest correlation with scores on COMLEX 1 is second semester Renal section course among all the courses in the first 2 years, as shown in one particular study of traditional organ-system curriculum [ 9 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the last 20 years, many allopathic medical schools, as well as osteopathic medical schools, have implemented an organ-system based curriculum, but studies that have specifically connected an organ-system based curriculum and COMLEX 1 performance are rare [ 9 ]. Glaros et al have found that the highest correlation with scores on COMLEX 1 is second semester Renal section course among all the courses in the first 2 years, as shown in one particular study of traditional organ-system curriculum [ 9 ]. Our school, Rocky Vista University College of Osteopathic Medicine, has a modified two-pass organ-system curriculum, which was initiated in 2011.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Early prediction of the risk of scoring lower than 500 on the COMLEX 1

et al. 2021

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Background The Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination of the United States Level 1 (COMLEX 1) is important for medical students to be able to graduate. There is a glaring need to identify students who are at a significant risk of performing poorly on COMLEX 1 as early as possible so that extra assistance can be provided to those students. Our goal is to produce a reliable predictive model to identify students who are at risk of scoring lower than 500 on COMLEX 1 at the earliest possible time. Methods Academic data from medical students who matriculated at Rocky Vista University College of Osteopathic Medicine between 2011 and 2017 were obtained. Odds ratios were used to assess the predictors for scoring lower than 500 on COMLEX 1. Correlation with COMLEX 1 scores was assessed with Pearson correlation coefficient. The predictive models were developed by multiple logistic regression, backward logistic regression, and logistic regression with average scores in courses in the first three semesters, and were based on performances on the Medical College Admissions Test (MCAT) before admission, as well as students’ performances in preclinical courses during the first three semesters. The models were generated in about 82% of the student performance data and were then validated in the remaining 18% of the data. Results Odds ratios showed that MCAT scores and final grades in each course in the first three semesters were significant in predicting a score lower than 500 on COMLEX 1. Performances in third-semester courses including Renal System II, Cardiovascular System II, and Respiratory System II were most important in prediction. The three predictive models had sensitivities of 65.8 -71%, and specificities of 83.2 - 88.2% in predicting a score lower than 500 on COMLEX 1. Conclusions Lower MCAT scores and lower grades in the first three semesters of medical school predict scoring lower than 500 on COMLEX 1. Students who are identified at risk by our models will have a 65.8 -71% chance of actually scoring lower than 500 on COMLEX 1. Those students will have enough time to receive assistance before taking COMLEX 1.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Early prediction of the risk of scoring lower than 500 on the COMLEX 1

et al. 2021

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“…Previous studies have identified several early (pre admission) [1][2][3][4][5][6] as well as later (post admission) [5][6][7][8][9][10] variables that associate with student performance on licensure examinations. Pre admission variables with significant association have included overall scores on the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), 1,3 scores on the biologic science 2,11 and verbal reasoning 6 section of the MCAT, undergraduate Grade Point Average (GPA), 1 science GPA, 2 multiple mini interview scores, 4 race, 2 age, 2,12 gender, 6,12 and college selectivity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Pre admission variables with significant association have included overall scores on the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), 1,3 scores on the biologic science 2,11 and verbal reasoning 6 section of the MCAT, undergraduate Grade Point Average (GPA), 1 science GPA, 2 multiple mini interview scores, 4 race, 2 age, 2,12 gender, 6,12 and college selectivity. 2 Post admission variables have included performance in individual first year courses, 7,9 overall performance in the first 1,6,7,9 and second 1,6 years of undergraduate medical programs, clerkship in-training evaluation reports 10 , national board of medical examiners (NBME) scores, 5 block scores, 5 clinical performance, 1,8 and performance on a final Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE). 6 Unfortunately, the majority of these studies attempted to predict performance on the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) [1][2][3]7,8,13,14 and not the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination (MCCQE) Part I.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students’ undergraduate academic performance?

et al. 2021

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Background: In 2015, the Medical Council of Canada increased the minimum pass level for the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination Part I, and students had a higher rate of failure than in previous years. The purpose of this study was to predict students at an increased odds of examination failure to allow for early, targeted interventions. Methods: We divided our dataset into a derivation cohort and two validation cohorts and used multiple logistic regression to predict licensing examination failure. We then performed receiver operating characteristics and a sensitivity analysis using different cutoffs for explanatory variables to identify the cutoff threshold with the best predictive value at identifying students at increased odds of failure. Results: After multivariate analysis, only pre-clerkship GPA was a significant independent predictor of failure (OR 0.76, 95% CI [0.66, 0.88], p < 0.001). The probability of failure increased steeply when the pre-clerkship GPA fell below 80% and 76% was found to be the most efficient cutoff for predicting failure (OR 9.37, 95% CI [3.08, 38.41]). Conclusions: Pre-clerkship performance can predict students at increased odds of licensing examination failure. Further studies are needed to explore whether early interventions for at-risk students alter their examination performance.

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