Early Modern Europe

Pfister, Christian; Brázdil, Rudolf; Luterbacher, Jürg; Ogilvie, Astrid E. J.; White, Sam

doi:10.1057/978-1-137-43020-5_23

Cited by 16 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…The data in Table 2 allow us to infer that a strong association between harvest failures and high mortality, through a deadly combination of increased food prices, starvation (likely triggering food riots and social unrest), and disease outbreaks, was present at least until 1831 in Moncorvo and 1864 in Braga. The anomalously high mortality peaks identified here (25 in total) all agreed with years of 'general' crises in the two municipalities (David 1992;Tavares 1997a), some of them well matched with recognized longer-term mortality crises in the country and even abroad (Lebrun 1980;Pérez Moreda 1980;Barbosa 2001;Rodrigues et al 2008;Pfister et al 2018). Although David (1992) and Tavares (1997a) labelled those crises as 'mixed crises' (in which clearly identifiable epidemics happened in famine years), they seem to be mostly rooted in climate-induced agricultural decline, causing (agro-)economic distress (in both the short-and long-run), as discussed thoroughly byothers (e.g.…”

Section: Higher Mortality Incidence In Relation To External Drivers: ...supporting

confidence: 78%

“…2008; Pfister et al . 2018). Although David (1992) and Tavares (1997a) labelled those crises as ‘mixed crises’ (in which clearly identifiable epidemics happened in famine years), they seem to be mostly rooted in climate‐induced agricultural decline, causing (agro‐)economic distress (in both the short‐ and long‐run), as discussed thoroughly by others (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Brázdil et al 2010;DeGroot 2018). Researchers have depicted shifts in the mean or in the variability of the regional climate at periods of grand minimanamely in western (and central) Europe, where moist snowy winters, cold springs, cool and rainy (mid-)summers, and less warm anticyclones in autumn prevailed (Pfister et al 2018)as deeply affecting past societies: either by triggering (or worsening) regional harvest failures and deaths of livestock (due to shortage of pasture), which have conducted to relatively prolonged food supply scarcities, malnutrition, and famines, harming human immunity and increasing vulnerability to disease; or by leading to a concatenation of eventsviolence (war and rebellions), with deaths in action, the accompanying ravaging of civilians, the disruption of farming, the invading armies confiscating or destroying whatever food remained, the outburst of epidemics (typhus and typhoid fever especially, but also dysentery or cholera) in the wake of the devastation. This culminated in mortality crises, when deaths reached quite atypical levels, all over the 'Early Modern' world (Zhang et al 2007;Camenisch et al 2016;DeGroot 2018).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Examining the role of solar activity, climate, and the socio‐historical context in high all‐cause mortality (northern Portugal, 1700–1880)

Moreno¹,

Moreno

Fatela

et al. 2021

Boreas

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The far‐reaching impact of the Sun on Earth's climate and on people's health and well‐being is a poorly understood and non‐consensual scientific issue, with empirical literature stressing the need to expand the knowledge of such relationships. Here, the interplay between solar activity (SA) and climate, and its likely cascading effects on all‐cause mortality, were examined at several time scales. To this end, the parish records of Braga (1700–1880) and Torre de Moncorvo (1700–1850), in two different geographical locations of northern Portugal (Iberia, SW Europe), were used. Crude mortality rate (CMR) and winter–summer ratio (W/S) values were computed to characterize mortality patterns/trends and couple them with potential relevant drivers: total solar irradiance (TSI) as a proxy of SA, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and key historical events. What emerged, albeit incomplete, was a complex picture of death deeply embedded in people’s physical and socioeconomic environments, at a time when ubiquitous poverty (and co‐morbid malnutrition) was the most inveterate cause of ill health. After identifying the positive mortality episodes in both municipalities, their incidence was found to be higher in periods of weakened SA (normal/grand minima). Standard inference statistics were used to estimate the significance of the observations. The highest CMR peaks matched not only with wars but also with known wide‐ranging mortality crises, which seem to have been triggered by major agricultural production shortfalls, followed by substantial increases in food prices, driven, in turn, by climate deterioration, including extreme weather occurrences. The outcome was social unrest, famines, and outbreaks of infectious diseases, heightening the death toll. The influence of prominent solar/climate variations was investigated using wavelet transform coherence analysis (WTC). The results showed (multi)decadal oscillations in both (TSI and NAO) somehow regulating mortality. But the WTC analysis also estimated SA signals in low‐frequency mortality dynamics disguised by time‐varying determinants, where distinct players of space weather might have been implicated.

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Section: Higher Mortality Incidence In Relation To External Drivers: ...supporting

confidence: 78%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Examining the role of solar activity, climate, and the socio‐historical context in high all‐cause mortality (northern Portugal, 1700–1880)

Moreno¹,

Moreno

Fatela

et al. 2021

Boreas

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“…The transformation process required a dynamic understanding of the historical information used in the analysis, with a thorough knowledge of regional and sub-regional climates, and familiarity with the relative strengths and weaknesses of each type of source. A procedure, called weather hindcasting 127 , was used to become familiar with well-documented anomalies in the instrumental period before analysing similar cases in the pre-instrumental epoch. Storms occurring during the early part of the summer season (May to July) were not considered in this study, as they generally only affect small or isolated areas of the TRB and are not representative for storm reconstruction.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A millennium-long climate history of erosive storms across the Tiber River Basin, Italy, from 725 to 2019 CE

Diodato¹,

Ljungqvist

Bellocchi

2021

Sci Rep

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Rainfall erosivity drives damaging hydrological events with significant environmental and socio-economic impacts. This study presents the world’s hitherto longest time-series of annual rainfall erosivity (725–2019 CE), one from the Tiber River Basin (TRB), a fluvial valley in central Italy in which the city of Rome is located. A historical perspective of erosive floods in the TRB is provided employing a rainfall erosivity model based on documentary data, calibrated against a sample (1923–1964) of actual measurement data. Estimates show a notable rainfall erosivity, and increasing variability, during the Little Ice Age (here, ~ 1250–1849), especially after c. 1495. During the sixteenth century, erosive forcing peaked at > 3500 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in 1590, with values > 2500 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in 1519 and 1566. Rainfall erosivity continued into the Current Warm Period (since ~ 1850), reaching a maximum of ~ 3000 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in the 1940s. More recently, erosive forcing has attenuated, though remains critically high (e.g., 2087 and 2008 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in 1992 and 2005, respectively). Comparison of the results with sediment production (1934–1973) confirms the model’s ability to predict geomorphological effects in the TRB, and reflects the role of North Atlantic circulation dynamics in central Italian river basins.

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“…To minimize frost damage, farmers could use fields in locations with different microclimate conditions (Huhtamaa et al, 2015; Huhtamaa & Helama, 2017a). Societies that adapted to environmental risks through diversified agriculture and economies showed a higher degree of resilience to famines (Degroot et al, 2021; Ljungqvist, 2017; Pfister et al, 2018). The introduction of large‐scale potato cultivation in northern and central Europe during the 18th century played a vital role in increasing total food production and food security (Nunn & Qian, 2011).…”

Section: Causes Of Faminementioning

confidence: 99%

Famines in medieval and early modern Europe—Connecting climate and society

Ljungqvist,

Seim,

Collet

2023

WIREs Climate Change

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The article evaluates recent scholarship on famines in Europe during the medieval and early modern periods (c. 700–1800), synthesizing the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge and identifying both research gaps and interdisciplinary potentials. Particular focus is placed on how, and to what extent, climatic change and variability is given explanatory power in famine causation. Current research, supported by recent advances in palaeoclimatology, reveals that anomalous cold conditions constituted the main environmental backdrop for severe food production crises that could result in famines in pre‐industrial Europe. Such food crises occurred most frequently between c. 1550 and 1710, during the climax of the Little Ice Age cooling, and can be connected to the strong dependency on grain in Europe during this period. The available body of scholarship demonstrates that famines in medieval and early modern Europe best can be understood as the result of the interactions of climatic and societal stressors responding to pre‐existing vulnerabilities. Recent research has shown that societal responses to these famines, and the appropriation of their consequences, have been much more comprehensive, dynamic, and substantial than previously assumed. The article concludes by providing recommendations for future studies on historical famines.This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Major Historical Eras Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Paleoclimate

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Early Modern Europe

Cited by 16 publications

References 87 publications

Examining the role of solar activity, climate, and the socio‐historical context in high all‐cause mortality (northern Portugal, 1700–1880)

Examining the role of solar activity, climate, and the socio‐historical context in high all‐cause mortality (northern Portugal, 1700–1880)

A millennium-long climate history of erosive storms across the Tiber River Basin, Italy, from 725 to 2019 CE

Famines in medieval and early modern Europe—Connecting climate and society

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