Keywords: PSO, BP neural network, 110kV transmission line, cost forecasting
IntroductionTo meet the social demand for electricity, the power grid around has been constructed much faster.The infrastructure investment of the State Grid Corporation is maintained an annual growth rate of over 10%.A reasonable determinationto the cost of construction projects is importantto improve the returns of the power grid investment. At present, it's mainly through the budget quota shall to estimate accurately the project cost [1], but this method has been increasingly unable to meet the requirements of economic development.In the context of not completely collecting the amount of information, it's hard to predict the project cost quickly and efficiently. Therefore, the introduction of advanced cost forecasting methods and the improvementof cost prediction accuracy have important significance.Many scholars and experts launched a studyin the field of power engineering cost, but mainly concentrated in factors affecting cost, cost control and management and other aspects, relatively fewer studies on the cost forecasting model. Literature [2] usesthe fuzzy math theory, and estimate the cost of the project to be builtthrough calculatingthe close degree between the completed projects and the projects to be built; literature [3] adopts a linear regression model to predict the cost; literature [4] holds a regression analysis on the key impactive factors on the cost, using multiple linear regression and factor adjustment to establish a comprehensive cost forecasting model for the transmission project; literature [5] uses the GM(1,1) model to establish two principles calculation models, which was used to compilethe estimates of the power engineering projects.In the application of artificial neural network, literature [6] usesthe cost data of historical power engineering projects for ANN training, and adopts the new ANN after training to the cost forecasting of new power projects; literature [7] proposed an approach based on the combining method of gray relational analysis and the neural network; literature [8] proposed a cost forecasting methodbased on BP neural network of the transmission line projects.However, the BP neural network algorithm exists problems ofbeing sensitive to the initial weights, easy to fall into local minimum and slow convergence [9], so we introduce the PSOalgorithmbased onideas of global stochastic optimization, and adopt the PSO-BP algorithm tothe transmission line cost forecasting.