Objective
Identify diagnostic risk factors of mania/hypomania in the offspring of parents with bipolar disorder (“high-risk offspring”).
Method
High-risk offspring aged 6-18 years (n=391) and demographically-matched offspring (n=248) of community parents without bipolar disorder were assessed longitudinally with standardized diagnostic instruments by staff blind to parental diagnoses. Follow-up assessments were completed in 91% of the offspring (mean interval 2.5 years; mean duration 6.8 years).
Results
High-risk offspring, as compared to community offspring, had significantly higher rates of subthreshold (hypo)manic (13.3% vs. 1.2%, p<.0001), manic/hypomanic (9.2% vs. 0.8%, p=.0003) and major depressive episodes (32.0% vs. 14.9%, p<.0001). They also had higher rates of attention-deficit hyperactivity (30.7% vs. 18.2%, p=.01), disruptive behavior (27.4% vs. 15.3%, p=.03), anxiety (39.9% vs. 21.8%, p=.0002), and substance use disorders (20.0% vs. 10.1%, p=.008), but not unipolar major depressive disorder (major depression with no bipolarity; 18.9% vs. 13.7%; p=.10). Multivariate Cox regressions in the high-risk offspring showed that subthreshold (hypo)manic episodes (Hazard Ratio 2.29, p=.03), major depressive episodes (Hazard Ratio 1.99, p=.05), and disruptive behavior disorders (Hazard Ratio 2.12, p=.03) were associated with subsequent mania/hypomania. Only subthreshold (hypo)manic episodes (Hazard Ratio 7.57, p<.0001) were associated when analyses were restricted to prospective data.
Conclusions
Subthreshold (hypo)manic episodes were a diagnostic risk factor for the development of mania/hypomania in the offspring of parents with bipolar disorder, and should be a target for clinical assessment and future treatment research. Major depressive episodes and disruptive behavior disorders are also indications for close clinical monitoring of emergent bipolarity in high-risk offspring.