Early human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox, May 2022

McAndrew, Thomas; Majumder, Maimuna S.; Lover, Andrew A.; Venkatramanan, Srinivasan; Bocchini, Paolo; Besiroglu, Tamay; Codi, Allison; Braun, David; Dempsey, Gaia; Abbott, Sam; Chevalier, Sylvain; Bosse, Nikos I.; Cambeiro, Juan

doi:10.1016/s2589-7500(22)00127-3

Cited by 21 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 10 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The authors would like to thank the community forecasters for their participation and contributed predictions throughout the tournament, as well as the team at Metaculus for efficient and smooth operation of the tournament. The authors also acknowledge the scientific feedback from members of the Biocomplexity Institute COVID- 19…”

Section: Acknowledgmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Utility of human judgment ensembles during times of pandemic uncertainty: A case study during the COVID-19 Omicron BA.1 wave in the USA

Venkatramanan

Cambeiro²,

Liptay³

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Responding to a rapidly evolving pandemic like COVID-19 is challenging, and involves anticipating novel variants, vaccine uptake, and behavioral adaptations. Human judgment systems can complement computational models by providing valuable real-time forecasts. We report findings from a study conducted on Metaculus, a community forecasting platform, in partnership with the Virginia Department of Health, involving six rounds of forecasting during the Omicron BA.1 wave in the United States from November 2021 to March 2022. We received 8355 probabilistic predictions from 129 unique users across 60 questions pertaining to cases, hospitalizations, vaccine uptake, and peak/trough activity. We observed that the case forecasts performed on par with national multi-model ensembles and the vaccine uptake forecasts were more robust and accurate compared to baseline models. We also identified qualitative shifts in Omicron BA.1 wave prognosis during the surge phase, demonstrating rapid adaptation of such systems. Finally, we found that community estimates of variant characteristics such as growth rate and timing of dominance were in line with the scientific consensus. The observed accuracy, timeliness, and scope of such systems demonstrates the value of incorporating them into pandemic policymaking workflows.

show abstract

Section: Acknowledgmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the COVID-19 pandemic, this crowd-sourced approach has been used to evaluate vaccine policies [16] and combined with computational models to produce hybrid/ensemble forecasts [17, 18]. Recently, for the emerging monkeypox outbreak, human judgment forecasts were used to estimate cases, deaths, and impact across Europe, US and Canada [19].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Utility of human judgment ensembles during times of pandemic uncertainty: A case study during the COVID-19 Omicron BA.1 wave in the USA

Venkatramanan

Cambeiro²,

Liptay³

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Similarly, the reported cases from Spain showed predominance of men who had sex with men [9]. Other studies had looked at the global estimates of (MOXV) cases across several nations [10,11]. On the other hand, the COVID-19 pandemic had facilitated many countries around the globe to develop rapid testing, isolation, and management [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other studies had looked at the global estimates of (MOXV) cases across several nations [10,11]. On the other hand, the COVID-19 pandemic had facilitated many countries around the globe to develop rapid testing, isolation, and management [10]. Some countries had deployed Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) design and programmers and infection control activities in response to (MOXV) outbreaks globally [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Healthcare workers’ worries and Monkeypox vaccine advocacy during the first month of the WHO Monkeypox alert: Cross-sectional survey in Saudi Arabia

Aljamaan

Alenezi

Alhasan

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Monkeypox virus re-surged in May 2022 as a new potential global health threat with outbreaks bursting in multiple countries across different continents. This study was conducted during the first month of the WHO announcement to assess the healthcare workers (HCWs) within Saudi Arabia, exploring their perception, worries, and vaccine acceptance for Monkeypox in-line with the resolving COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A national cross-sectional survey was conducted between May 27 and June 10, 2022, in Saudi Arabia. Data were collected on the sociodemographic and job-related characteristics, COVID-19 infection status, HCWs' worry levels of Monkeypox compared to COVID-19 and its sources, their perceptions, awareness, and HCWs' Monkeypox vaccination advocacy. Results: Among the 1130 HCWs who completed survey, 41.6% already developed COVID-19. Still, 56.5% were more worried from COVID-19 compared to Monkeypox, while the rest were more worried of Monkeypox disease. The main reason for their worry among 68.8% of the participants was development of another worldwide pandemic post COVID-19, followed by their worry of acquiring the infection themselves or their families (49.6%). Most HCWs (60%) rated their self-awareness of Monkeypox disease as moderate to high. Males and those who previously developed COVID-19 were significantly less likely to worry about Monkeypox. The worry about Monkeypox developing into a pandemic and the perception of Monkeypox being a severe disease correlated significantly positively with the odds of high worry from the disease. Regarding participants' advocacy for HCWs' vaccination against Monkeypox disease, those who developed COVID-19 previously and those who supported application of tighter infection control measures compared to the current ones to combat the disease were significantly predicted to agree for vaccination. 74.2% of the surveyed HCWs perceived that they need to read more about the Monkeypox disease after the survey. Conclusion: During the first month of the WHO's Monkeypox international alert, about half of HCWs in this study were more worried about Monkeypox disease as compared to COVID-19, and its possible progression into another pandemic. In addition, the majority were in favor of applying tighter infection prevention measures to combat the disease. The current study highlights areas needed for healthcare administrative about the HCWs' perceptions and readiness for Monkeypox especially in the event of any occurrence of local or international pandemic.

show abstract

“…Human judgment has produced accurate forecasts of the progression of an infectious agent for seasonal epidemics and pandemic events [ 5–7 ]. Past work studying COVID-19 and human judgment has highlighted the potential ability of aggregate human judgment predictions to adapt to changing dynamics faster than mathematical models [ 7 , 8 ].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures

Codi

Luk

Braun

et al. 2022

Open Forum Infectious Diseases

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Early human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox, May 2022

Cited by 21 publications

References 10 publications

Utility of human judgment ensembles during times of pandemic uncertainty: A case study during the COVID-19 Omicron BA.1 wave in the USA

Utility of human judgment ensembles during times of pandemic uncertainty: A case study during the COVID-19 Omicron BA.1 wave in the USA

Healthcare workers’ worries and Monkeypox vaccine advocacy during the first month of the WHO Monkeypox alert: Cross-sectional survey in Saudi Arabia

Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About