Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes

Lopez, Hosmay; West, Robert; Dong, Shenfu; Goñi, Gustavo; Kirtman, Ben P.; Lee, Sang Ki; Atlas, Robert

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0116-y

Cited by 66 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Strategies for introducing CAM into crop plants to make them more resilient to hotter and drier conditions have been largely discussed in the context of arid or marginal lands 36–38 ; 236–38 . Less attention has been given to the question of whether CAM could benefit the productivity of C 3 species typically grown in temperate climates, such as wheat or barley, where hot and dry periods are becoming increasingly frequent 39,40 . In this context a flexible CAM i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CAM emerges in a leaf metabolic model under water-saving constraints in different environments

Toepfer

Braam

Shameer

et al. 2020

Preprint

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11Crassulacean Acid Metabolism (CAM) evolved in arid environments as a water-saving 12 alternative to C3 photosynthesis. There is great interest in engineering more drought-resistant 13 crop species by introducing CAM into C3 plants. However, one of the open questions is 14 whether full CAM or alternative water-saving flux modes would be more productive in the 15 environments typically experienced by C3 crops. To study the effect of temperature and 16relative humidity on plant metabolism we coupled a time-resolved diel model of leaf 17 metabolism to an environment-dependent gas-exchange model. This model allowed us to 18 study the emergence of CAM or CAM-like behaviour as a result of a trade-off between leaf 19 productivity and water-saving. We show that vacuolar storage capacity in the leaf is a major 20 determinant of the extent of CAM and shapes the occurrence of phase II and IV of the CAM 21 cycle. Moreover, the model allows us to study alternative flux routes and we identify 22 mitochondrial isocitrate dehydrogenase (ICDH) and an isocitrate-citrate-proline-2OG cycle as 23 a potential contributor to initial carbon fixation at night. Simulations across a wide range of 24 environmental parameters show that the water-saving potential of CAM strongly depends on 25 the environment and that the additional water-saving effect of carbon fixation by ICDH can 26 reach up to 4% for the conditions tested. 27 28 An optimality study reveals trade-offs between productivity and WUE 131Computationally, the question of how a system's behaviour changes when operating between 132 competing objectives can be tackled by performing a Pareto analysis [16][17][18][19] . In our case phloem 133 output and water-saving represented two competing driving forces. We started the Pareto 134 analysis from the above described scenario of a mature leaf optimized for maximum phloem 135 output (i.e. 100% phloem output, here termed Pareto step 1). We then subsequently reduced 136 the required phloem output in 10%-steps and used minimization of water loss as the primary 137 optimization objective. Given this setup, we saw an almost linear decrease in water loss with 138 decreasing phloem output, hence we did not observe any significant water-saving mechanism 139

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CAM emerges in a leaf metabolic model under water-saving constraints in different environments

Toepfer

Braam

Shameer

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…The extreme temperature and heat wave events, as well as the associated large‐scale atmospheric circulation, are analyzed using daily mean near‐surface air temperatures from the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast Twentieth Century Reanalysis (ERA‐20C; Poli et al, ). We choose the ERA‐20C in order to be consistent with Lopez et al () as their study served as the main motivation as well as the basis for the analysis presented here. Also, ERA‐20C provides a long record (1900–2010) of daily near‐surface temperature that is reliable over North America for the computation of heat waves.…”

Section: Data Models and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The definition of heat waves proposed here is based on clustering warm extreme daily mean temperature that covers each summer from 1 June to 30 August (i.e., June‐July‐August; JJA) over the United States following Lopez et al (). The clustering of heat waves allows us to separately assess their dependence on large‐scale dynamics.…”

Section: Data Models and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given these findings, there is large uncertainty in future projection of heat waves over the United States. For example, Lopez et al () showed that anthropogenic forcing will dominate the occurrence of heat waves over the western United States and Great Lakes region, whereas the presence of large natural variability that governs heat wave occurrence over the Great Plains adds uncertainty in their future projections. They found a strong negative correlation between the projected changes in the Great Plains low‐level jet amplitude and the projected changes in the number of heat wave days among CMIP5 models, identifying a potential large‐scale pattern that could aid in heat wave predictions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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East Asian Monsoon as a Modulator of U.S. Great Plains Heat Waves

et al. 2019

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Heat waves are the leading weather‐related cause of death in the United States, with the most recent examples occurring in the summers of 2011 and 2012 over the Great Plains. These events are unusual and largely unpredictable beyond the synoptic timescale. Their number and severity have increased and are projected to continue to increase, prompting the need to identify the physical processes that modulate heat waves and, consequently, can lead to improved prediction and future projection. Our results based on observations and model simulations suggest that convective latent heat release from the East Asian Monsoon enhances the likelihood of droughts and heat waves over the United States through an equivalent barotropic wave train along the subtropical jet stream, promoting an anticyclonic circulation pattern over the Great Plains. This anticyclone serves as a blocking pattern for transient synoptic‐scale systems and is supportive of persistent drought and clear sky conditions, promoting high temperatures and heat waves.

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“…An increasing focus is on the importance of physiological tolerance, plasticity (acclimation capacity) and evolutionary adaptation (adaptive capacity) of physiological tolerance (Norberg, Urban, Vellend, Klausmeier, & Loeuille, ). An increase in exposure through the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events is expected to challenge the ability of individuals and populations to cope with not only warming, but also extreme heat events that vary in duration, frequency and magnitude (Coumou & Rahmstorf, ; Lopez et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Physiological acclimation and persistence of ectothermic species under extreme heat events

Morley

Peck

Sunday

et al. 2019

Global Ecol Biogeogr

117

129

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Aim To test if physiological acclimation can buffer species against increasing extreme heat due to climate change. Location Global. Time period 1960 to 2015. Major taxa studied Amphibians, arthropods, brachiopods, cnidarians, echinoderms, fishes, molluscs, reptiles. Methods We draw together new and existing data quantifying the warm acclimation response in 319 species as the acclimation response ratio (ARR): the increase in upper thermal limit per degree increase in experimental temperature. We develop worst‐case scenario climate projections to calculate the number of years and generations gained by ARR until loss of thermal safety. We further compute a vulnerability score that integrates across variables estimating exposure to climate change and species‐specific tolerance through traits, including physiological plasticity, generation time and latitudinal range extent. Results ARR is highly variable, but with marked differences across taxa, habitats and latitude. Polar terrestrial arthropods show high ARRs [95% upper confidence limit (UCL95%) = 0.68], as do some polar aquatic invertebrates that were acclimated for extended durations (ARR > 0.4). While this physiological plasticity buys 100s of years until thermal safety is lost, combination with long generation times leads to decreased potential for evolutionary adaptation. Additionally, 27% of marine polar invertebrates have no capacity for acclimation and reptiles and amphibians have minimal ARR (UCL95% = 0.16). Low physiological plasticity, long generations times and restricted latitudinal ranges combine to distinguish reptiles, amphibians and polar invertebrates as being highly vulnerable amongst ectotherms. Main conclusions In some taxa the combined effects of acclimation capacity and generation time can provide 100s of years and generations before thermal safety is lost. The accuracy of assessments of vulnerability to climate change will be improved by considering multiple aspects of species’ biology that, in combination may increase persistence under extreme heat events, and increase the probability for evolutionary rescue.

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Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes

Cited by 66 publications

References 50 publications

CAM emerges in a leaf metabolic model under water-saving constraints in different environments

CAM emerges in a leaf metabolic model under water-saving constraints in different environments

East Asian Monsoon as a Modulator of U.S. Great Plains Heat Waves

Physiological acclimation and persistence of ectothermic species under extreme heat events

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