2007
DOI: 10.1186/1742-7622-4-2
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Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness

Abstract: The incubation period of infectious diseases, the time from infection with a microorganism to onset of disease, is directly relevant to prevention and control. Since explicit models of the incubation period enhance our understanding of the spread of disease, previous classic studies were revisited, focusing on the modeling methods employed and paying particular attention to relatively unknown historical efforts. The earliest study on the incubation period of pandemic influenza was published in 1919, providing … Show more

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Cited by 95 publications
(91 citation statements)
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References 78 publications
(102 reference statements)
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“…As shown in Extended Data Table 1, the distributions generated by highly fit pathogens and mutants are predicted to have dispersion factors (also known as geometric standard deviations) of about 1.1 − 1.4, close to the actual values of 1.1 − 1.5 observed for various diseases 8,9,11 . The model also helps to explain why so few diseases yield dispersion factors greater than 1.5.…”
supporting
confidence: 55%
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“…As shown in Extended Data Table 1, the distributions generated by highly fit pathogens and mutants are predicted to have dispersion factors (also known as geometric standard deviations) of about 1.1 − 1.4, close to the actual values of 1.1 − 1.5 observed for various diseases 8,9,11 . The model also helps to explain why so few diseases yield dispersion factors greater than 1.5.…”
supporting
confidence: 55%
“…Historically, the distribution of incubation periods has been ascribed to heterogeneity 8,11,21 in the strength and dose of the pathogen, and in the immune response of the host. To see how these potential sources of heterogeneity could account for the skewed and approximately lognormal distribution of incubation periods, consider a pathogen growing exponentially with rate r from an initial population N 0 , so that its population at time t is given by N(t) = N 0 e rt .…”
Section: Influence Of Heterogeneitymentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…The incubation period is defined as the time from pathogen exposure to the onset of symptoms [16,20]. Owing to factors such as host susceptibility, size of inoculum, strain virulence and chance, infected persons can experience different incubation periods.…”
Section: Incubation Periodmentioning
confidence: 99%