Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim Paul; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A.; Möllmann, Christian

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0038410

Cited by 83 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Estimating such indicators in empirical data from drylands prone to desertification did not yield expected patterns [30]. In marine ecosystems, despite some indirectly derived positive results [31 -33], indicators of CSD largely failed to detect known regime shifts [34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

Dakos

Carpenter

Nes

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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419

515

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In the vicinity of tipping points—or more precisely bifurcation points—ecosystems recover slowly from small perturbations. Such slowness may be interpreted as a sign of low resilience in the sense that the ecosystem could easily be tipped through a critical transition into a contrasting state. Indicators of this phenomenon of ‘critical slowing down (CSD)’ include a rise in temporal correlation and variance. Such indicators of CSD can provide an early warning signal of a nearby tipping point. Or, they may offer a possibility to rank reefs, lakes or other ecosystems according to their resilience. The fact that CSD may happen across a wide range of complex ecosystems close to tipping points implies a powerful generality. However, indicators of CSD are not manifested in all cases where regime shifts occur. This is because not all regime shifts are associated with tipping points. Here, we review the exploding literature about this issue to provide guidance on what to expect and what not to expect when it comes to the CSD-based early warning signals for critical transitions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

Dakos

Carpenter

Nes

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

Self Cite

419

515

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show abstract

“…B 370: 20130271 [11,[26][27][28][29] and continue to provide insight into the timing [17,30] and responses of large marine ecosystems and of marine fisheries to changing ocean conditions and exploitation that together are known to contribute to regime shifts [17,30,31]. This enhanced activity is partly due to the increasing availability of timeseries data for ocean climate and of survey-derived geospatial information for multiple trophic levels, and an expanding array of analytical frameworks and detection methods [2,3,7,32] that have allowed researchers to determine whether and where regime shifts have occurred. These studies have contributed materially to the understanding of the roles of multiple potential drivers of regime shifts at large spatial scales [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

Fisher

Casini

Frank

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator–prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.

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“…One approach is the development of early warning indicators, which have been proposed to provide information about the risk of a regime shift in the near future (Scheffer et al 2009). This interesting approach has been tested on many ecosystems but requires a high temporal or spatial resolution of monitoring data, a prerequisite that is seldom realized in marine ecosystems (Lindegren et al 2012). An alternative approach in EBM may be to build a high resilience to prevent abrupt changes and ecosystem-wide regime shifts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future challenges in managing European seas

Blenckner¹,

Kannen²,

Barausse³

et al. 2015

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Marine environments have undergone large-scale changes in recent decades as a result of multiple anthropogenic pressures, such as overfishing, eutrophication, habitat fragmentation, etc., causing often nonlinear ecosystem responses. At the same time, management institutions lack the appropriate measures to address these abrupt transformations. We focus on existing examples from social-ecological systems of European seas that can be used to inform and advise future management. Examples from the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea on long-term ecosystem changes caused by eutrophication and fisheries, as well as changes in management institutions, illustrate nonlinear dynamics in social-ecological systems. Furthermore, we present two major future challenges, i.e., climate change and energy intensification, that could further increase the potential for nonlinear changes in the near future. Practical tools to address these challenges are presented, such as ensuring learning, flexibility, and networking in decision-making processes across sectors and scales. A combination of risk analysis with a scenario-planning approach might help to identify the risks of ecosystem changes early on and may frame societal changes to inform decision-making structures to proactively prevent drastic surprises in European seas.

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Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

Cited by 83 publications

References 37 publications

Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

Past and future challenges in managing European seas

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