2020
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01865-7
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Early detection of cholera epidemics to support control in fragile states: estimation of delays and potential epidemic sizes

Abstract: Background Cholera epidemics continue to challenge disease control, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected states. Rapid detection and response to small cholera clusters is key for efficient control before an epidemic propagates. To understand the capacity for early response in fragile states, we investigated delays in outbreak detection, investigation, response, and laboratory confirmation, and we estimated epidemic sizes. We assessed predictors of delays, and annual changes in response… Show more

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Cited by 20 publications
(25 citation statements)
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References 57 publications
(61 reference statements)
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“…The overall potential for impact of the intervention, therefore, may be considerably less than this study’s finds. Further, the 16-week delay between outbreak confirmation and intervention delivery would need to be greatly shortened, 33 43 coverage of interventions would need to be greater 89 90 and surveillance would need to be more timely and heightened 33 91 92 if this intervention were to have an impact on early epidemic propagation.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The overall potential for impact of the intervention, therefore, may be considerably less than this study’s finds. Further, the 16-week delay between outbreak confirmation and intervention delivery would need to be greatly shortened, 33 43 coverage of interventions would need to be greater 89 90 and surveillance would need to be more timely and heightened 33 91 92 if this intervention were to have an impact on early epidemic propagation.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Cholera outbreak occurrence appears conditionally independent of year given the other covariates in the model, as time does not cause cholera but instead the changes in covariates over time, making them good predictors of cholera outbreak occurrence. It is also thought that some temporal increases in cholera are due to global improvements for detection of all-pathogen outbreaks from the mid 1990s onwards, especially in low- and middle-income countries, improving countries’ capacity for detection, response and therefore reporting [ 44 , 45 ].…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Dans une étudepréliminaire sur le choléraàMoba [18], les auteurs avaient démontré que la communication pour le changement de comportement et l'amélioration des conditions d'hygiène demeuraient, comme souligné par certains chercheurs [31] - [33], les piliers de la diminution drastique de la morbidité et de la mortalité liées au cholera. C'est ce qui a été constaté durant la période de la pandémie à covi-19 dans notre milieu.…”
Section: Resultatsunclassified