Early Blight Forecasting Systems: Evaluation, Modification, and Validation for Use in Fresh-market Tomato Production in Northern New Jersey

Abstract

<jats:p>Research trials, conducted from 1991 to 1998, evaluated early blight forecasting systems for use in fresh-market tomato (<jats:italic>Lycopersicon esculentum</jats:italic>) production in northern New Jersey. Initial trials focused on determining which of three forecast systems—NJ-FAST, CU-FAST, TOM-CAST—would optimize fungicide use. The TOM-CAST system generated fungicide application schedules that reduced foliar disease rating compared to the untreated check and, in 1 year, controlled diseases as well as a weekly schedule with 3 rather than 14 applications. TOM-CAST was easier to use than NJ-FAST or CU-FAST because it required fewer weather data inputs and simpler forecast calculations. Subsequent trials evaluated and defined thresholds for using TOM-CAST in northern New Jersey and evaluated the efficacy of several fungicides with TOM-CAST. Of the six TOM-CAST modifications evaluated, TOM-CAST beginning fungicide applications at 25 cumulative dew severity values (dew SV) and reapplying fungicide at 15 or 25 cumulative dew SV reduced disease rating as much as a weekly schedule in 1995 and 1996 and with fewer applications. After 5 years of trials, decision thresholds for using TOM-CAST in northern New Jersey were chosen and this new version of the forecast system designated NJ-TOM-CAST. It was verified in 1997 and 1998 and shown to generate fungicide application schedules that reduced foliar disease rating compared to the untreated check in both years and as much as the weekly schedule in one year. From 1995 through 1998, the conservative TOM-CAST schedules, TOM-CAST 25-15 or NJ-TOM-CAST, required on average 6 fungicide applications per year compared to weekly schedules that required on average 15 applications per year. In 1996, marketable yield was increased with TOM-CAST scheduled treatment compared to the untreated check and was the same as or greater than yield with weekly treatment. In the other 3 years, fungicide applications, whether applied on a calendar-based or TOM-CAST-based schedule, did not increase marketable yields compared to the untreated check. Fungicides shown to be effective when used with NJ-TOM-CAST schedules included both low cost and new chemistry materials. Copper fungicides, some of which are allowed in organic crop production, did not consistently control fungal diseases when applied on the NJ-TOM-CAST schedule. Applying fungicides on the NJ-TOM-CAST schedule instead of calendar-based schedules did not increase bacterial disease severity. Powdery mildew damage was more severe with NJ-TOM-CAST-scheduled applications than weekly applications in 1 year, affirming the importance of disease monitoring in the field when using NJ-TOM-CAST. By 2000, through a cooperative effort of Rutgers Cooperative Extension and SkyBit, Inc. (Boalsburg, Pa.), a commercial weather service, NJ-TOM-CAST was available to northern New Jersey tomato growers by subscription.</jats:p>

Modification of the TOMCAST Model with Aerobiological Data for Management of Potato Early Blight

“…This model is derived from the original Forecasting Alternaria solani on Tomatoes (FAST) program and considers leaf wetness and air temperature to calculate daily severity values (disease severity values: DSV) that quantitatively represents favorable conditions for the development of early blight [26]. These values are accumulated until reaching at least 10 DSV to 45 DSV, depending on local environmental conditions or crop [27][28][29][30]. Firstly, the model was developed to estimate diseases such as early blight, septoria leaf spot and anthracnose affecting tomatoes [28,29].…”

“…These values are accumulated until reaching at least 10 DSV to 45 DSV, depending on local environmental conditions or crop [27][28][29][30]. Firstly, the model was developed to estimate diseases such as early blight, septoria leaf spot and anthracnose affecting tomatoes [28,29]. Later, TOMCAST was used to predict Stemphyllium in Asparagus and foliar blight in carrots, celery or pistachios [31][32][33][34][35][36][37].…”

Influence of foliar sprays ofBacillus subtilisQST 713 on development of early blight disease and yield of field tomatoes in Ontario

“…In conventional production systems, tomato early blight is almost exclusively managed by intensive fungicide spray programmes with or without a disease forecasting system (Madden et al 1978;Brammall 1993;Keinath et al 1996;Dillard et al 1997;Mills et al 2002;Cowgill et al 2005). Several effective fungicides have been registered for use against this disease on several hosts (Bartlett et al 2002).…”

Establishment of warning system of greenhouse rose diseases based on visual C++

“…At present,the system has already formed a mature system(an expert system or prediction system)which can predict the occurrence of plant diseases at home and abroad.It can reduce the loss caused by the diseases,so as to achieve the purpose of prevention [1][2][3][4][5] .But there have been no systematic reports on prediction system of greenhouse rose diseases at home and abroad.Through researching methods and findings of applications to plant diseases,we can get the conclusion:In predicting plant diseases,we usually use statistical methods or establish the experts' disease system which is related expert experience and knowledge of the disease expert system to establish the prediction [6] .According to the experimental data of greenhouse rose diseases and meteorological data from automatic weather stations,we build up greenhouse rose diseases prediction model which is based on genetic algorithm [7][8][9] and neural network [10][11] ,then get the accurate index of disease inflection rate of rose diseases.Users can have a convenient and quick operation, and take effective measures to prevent the occurrence of diseases.…”