Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans

Abstract

Following a period of privatization and restructuring, commercial banks in Central and Eastern Europe and, more recently, in the Balkans have expanded rapidly their lending to the private sector. This paper studies whether these developments are consistent with a process of convergence and structural financial deepening by estimating an ''equilibrium'' level of the bank-credit-to-GDP ratio. It concluded that while there is no clear evidence that the recent increases in bank credit ratios is inconsistent with financial deepening, policy-makers will have to evaluate carefully its implications for macroeconomic developments and financial stability. Ó 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in the CEECs: How Important are the Differences with the Euro Area?

“…24 Using the same recursive identification scheme as Anzuini and Levy (2004) (they also perform nonrecursive-Kim (1999)-type identification schemes), on the same sample with the same number of lags, but with our own dataset and the nominal effective exchange rate replacing their commodity price index, we have been unable to replicate their IRFs for Hungary and Poland. Cottarelli et al (2003). 1998-2002 1992-2002 1997-2002 1998-2002 2002 1998-2002 1998-2002 1995-2002 -3…”

“…Source: Cottarelli et al, (2003). Figure 1 - Response of CZ_CPI to Shock4 Response of CZ_IR to Shock4 Response of CZ_NEER to Shock4…”

Formation of countercyclical capital buffer in the European developing countries

“…This method is quite often used in macroeconomic studies (Cottarelli et al, 2003;Égert, Zumer, 2006;Zdzienicka, 2009;Geršl, Seidler, 2011) and is simple to apply to every country, but it has some questionable aspects when implementing it to developing countries. Analysing developing countries questions arise, whether do developing countries have long enough time series?…”

“…Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. C. Cottarelli et al (2003) identify three country groups:…”

“…Usually authors, applying OOS method, use the sample of developed EU member-countries or high income OECD member-countries (Cottarelli et al, 2003;Égert, Zumer, 2006;Zdzienicka, 2009;Geršlir, Seidler, 2011). The latter were analysed in this study (world Bank countries classification, 2012).…”