Early assessment of epidemiological trends associated with SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in Germany

Mitze, Timo; Rode, Johannes

doi:10.1101/2021.02.16.21251803

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…The global real-time tracing of the viral spread through whole genome sequencing is important in the race to timely identify the emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants that change the transmission, antigenic properties and/or pathogenicity of the virus [4]. The recent identification of three major Variants of Concern (VOC), with increased transmissibility and the potential to reduce vaccine effectiveness has led to increased surveillance efforts worldwide [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Cyprus

et al. 2021

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Whole genome sequencing of viral specimens following molecular diagnosis is a powerful analytical tool of molecular epidemiology that can critically assist in resolving chains of transmission, identifying of new variants or assessing pathogen evolution and allows a real-time view into the dynamics of a pandemic. In Cyprus, the first two cases of COVID-19 were identified on March 9, 2020 and since then 33,567 confirmed cases and 230 deaths were documented. In this study, viral whole genome sequencing was performed on 133 SARS-CoV-2 positive samples collected between March 2020 and January 2021. Phylogenetic analysis was conducted to evaluate the genomic diversity of circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Cyprus. 15 different lineages were identified that clustered into three groups associated with the spring, summer and autumn/winter wave of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Cyprus, respectively. The majority of the Cypriot samples belonged to the B.1.258 lineage first detected in September that spread rapidly and largely dominated the autumn/winter wave with a peak prevalence of 86% during the months of November and December. The B.1.1.7 UK variant (VOC-202012/01) was identified for the first time at the end of December and spread rapidly reaching 37% prevalence within one month. Overall, we describe the changing pattern of circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Cyprus since the beginning of the pandemic until the end of January 2021. These findings highlight the role of importation of new variants through travel towards the emergence of successive waves of incidence in Cyprus and demonstrate the importance of genomic surveillance in determining viral genetic diversity and the timely identification of new variants for guiding public health intervention measures.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Cyprus

et al. 2021

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“…An epidemiological and modeling study was conducted in Germany on the 7-day incidence rate (per 100,000 population), and the hospitalization rate (per 100,000 population). 76 All three VOC were combined for power due to the low spread in Germany at the time of the study – by February 4 th , 2021, 204 out of 401 (50.1%) of the HUT-3 regions had at least one VOC case. Hard-hit cities included Flensburg where the 7-day incidence rate drastically increased in January 2021 relative to the average development in Germany due to illegal parties and NRW cities (Cologne, Leverkusen and Duren).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mitze and Rode conducted an epidemiological and modeling study in Germany on the hospitalization rate per 100,000 population. 76 All three VOC were combined for power due to the low spread in Germany at the time of the study. Mitze and Rode found that an increase of 1.29 [CI: 0.5, 2.1, p<0.05] additional COVID-19 patients in intensive care per 100,000 population, which is a 42% rise in hospitalization in VOC regions compared to pre-VOC regions (3.08 patients in intensive care per 100,000 population).…”

Section: Increases In Icu Admissionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Public Health and Health Systems Impacts of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern: A Rapid Scoping Review

Curran

Dol

Boulos

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: As of April 2021, three SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC: B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1) have been detected in over 132 countries. Increased transmissibility of VOC has implications for public health measures and health system arrangements. This rapid scoping review aims to provide a synthesis of current evidence related to public health measures and health system arrangements associated with VOC. Methods: Rapid scoping review. Seven databases were searched up to April 7, 2021 for terms related to VOC, transmission, public health and health systems. A grey literature search was conducted up to April 14, 2021. Title, abstracts and full text were screened independently by two reviewers. Data were double extracted using a standardized form. Studies were included if they reported on at least one of the VOC and public health or health system outcomes. Results: Of the 2487 articles and 59 grey literature sources retrieved, 37 studies and 21 guidance documents were included. Included studies used a wide range of designs and methods. Most of the studies and guidance documents reported on B.1.1.7, and 18 studies and 4 reports provided data for consideration in relation to public health measures. Public health measures, including lockdowns, physical distancing, testing and contact tracing, were identified as critical adjuncts to a comprehensive vaccination campaign. No studies reported on handwashing or masking procedures related to VOC. For health system arrangements, 17 studies were identified. Some studies found an increase in hospitalization due to B.1.1.7 but no difference in length of stay or ICU admission. Six studies found an increased risk of death ranging from 15-67% with B.1.1.7 compared non-B.1.1.7, but three studies reported no change. One study reported on the effectiveness of personal protective equipment in reducing VOC transmission in the hospital. No studies reported on screening staff and visitors, adjusting service provisions, or adjusting patient accommodations and shared spaces, which is a significant gap in the literature. Guidance documents did not tend to cite any evidence and were thus assumed to be based on expert opinion. Conclusion: While the findings should be interpreted with caution as most of the sources identified were preprints, findings suggest a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., masking, physical distancing, lockdowns, testing) should be employed alongside a vaccine strategy to improve population and health system outcomes. While the findings are mixed on the impact of VOC on health system arrangements, the evidence is trending towards increased hospitalization and death.

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“…The Cavallo et al study also extends single treatment SCM estimation to the case of multiple treated units as it is applied here. SCM has previously been applied to COVID-related research, for instance, to study the effect of face masks on SARS-CoV-2 infection numbers in Germany (Mitze et al, 2020), epidemiological trends associated with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (Mitze and Rode, 2021) as well as lockdown effectiveness for a counterfactual of Sweden (Cho, 2020) and the United States (Friedson et al, 2021).…”

Section: Synthetic Control Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large-scale sport events and COVID-19 infection effects: evidence from the German professional football ‘experiment’

Breidenbach

Mitze

2021

The Econometrics Journal

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This paper studies the effects of large-scale sport events with live spectators on COVID-19 infection trends at the local population level. Specifically, we compare the development of incidence rates in 41 German NUTS-3 districts hosting a professional soccer match with at least 1,000 spectators vis-á -vis similar districts without hosting a match. Our empirical analysis builds on difference-in-difference and dynamic event study estimation for panel data. Synthetic control method is applied as robustness check. While our findings generally do not point to significant treatment effects for the full sample of match locations, we find some noteworthy exceptions: Districts hosting first league matches with an above median number of spectators (approx. >6, 300) and, particularly, matches without strict face mask requirements experienced a significant relative rise in incidence rates 14 days after the match. We also find that intra-district mobility increases on matchdays in treated districts highlighting the significance of professional soccer matches as mobility-based transmission channel.

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Early assessment of epidemiological trends associated with SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in Germany

Cited by 5 publications

References 34 publications

Molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Cyprus

Molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Cyprus

Public Health and Health Systems Impacts of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern: A Rapid Scoping Review

Large-scale sport events and COVID-19 infection effects: evidence from the German professional football ‘experiment’

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