Dynamics of water fluxes and storages in an Alpine karst catchment under current and potential future climate conditions

Chen, Zhao; Hartmann, Andreas; Wagener, Thorsten; Goldscheider, Nico

doi:10.5194/hess-22-3807-2018

Cited by 68 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…According to the simulated climate change scenarios, the climate context (semi-arid) and similarly to previous studies (Chen et al, 2018;Hartman et al, 2012;, 2017, a decrease in annual rainfall (-10% to -30%) could lead to lower discharge at the outlet, especially if combined with an increase in temperature (a 36% reduction in discharged volume), meaning that total precipitation drives spring discharge. The depletion time of the karst aquifer is expected to decrease, leading to summer water shortages (flow rates of less than 0.2 m 3 /s during the dry season) occurring earlier in the season and lasting for longer periods of time (up to +25 days annually).…”

Section: Dynamic Functioning and Spring Responses To Potential Futuresupporting

confidence: 66%

“…Although increasing temperatures leads to higher AET rates (Table 2), variations in temperature do not seem to significantly impact the modelled results, unlike Chen et al (2018) for some of the studied springs. This can be explained by the fact that AET rates are already close to zero during the dry season (no rain between May to early November).…”

Section: Dynamic Functioning and Spring Responses To Potential Futurementioning

confidence: 85%

“…This is particularly true in Mediterranean areas (Bakalowicz, 2015), where water resources are scarce. The exploitation of karst aquifers remains a challenge because of their highly heterogeneous nature (Bakalowicz, 2005;Ford and Williams, 2007;Stevanović, 2015) and their high vulnerability to contamination from anthropogenic activities, especially under global change conditions (Chen et al, 2018;Doummar and Aoun, 2018a, b;Hartmann et al, 2014;Iván and Mádl-Szőnyi, 2017;Leduc et al, 2017). A decrease in precipitation rates and an increase in temperature have already been experienced in the Mediterranean Basin for the last four decades (Milano et al, 2013), and are expected to worsen according to the climate change scenarios established for the 21st century (Collins et al, 2013;Giorgi and Lionello, 2008;Kirtman et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hydrogeological modelling of karst systems is a useful approach for sustainable aquifer management, as it allows spring discharge to be simulated (Fleury et al, 2009;Li et al, 2016) and provides a means to account for the impacts of climate change on future flow rates (Chen et al, 2018;Hartmann et al, 2012Hartmann et al, , 2014. Among the different types of available models, lumped models simplify karst systems (epikarst, conduit network, porous or fissured matrix, superposed karstic series) into a schematic representation of interconnected reservoirs to reproduce spring discharge (Ghasemizadeh et al, 2012;Hartmann et al, 2013;Mazzilli et al, 2017;Sauter et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Calibration of a semi-distributed lumped karst system model and analysis of its sensitivity to climate conditions: the example of the Qachqouch karst spring (Lebanon)

Dubois

Doummar

Pistre

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Flow in complex karst aquifers is challenging to conceptualize, therefore to model for better management practices, especially in poorly investigated areas, in semi-arid climates, and under changing climatic conditions. The objective of this work is to propose a calibration approach based on time-series analyses for a karst aquifer and to assess the impact of changing climate conditions on the spring discharge. Based on more than three years of high-resolution continuous monitoring, a semi-distributed lumped model was calibrated and validated for the Qachqouch karst spring, north of Beirut (Lebanon). Time-series analyses and decomposition of spring hydrographs revealed that the system has a high regulatory function, with considerable storage capacity providing stable flow (minimum flow of 0.2 m3/s) during the dry season, and with flow rates exceeding 10 m3/s during the wet season, similar to other karst aquifers in the region. Based on this detailed understanding of the hydrodynamics of the system, the model geometry and parameters were validated. Three linear reservoirs were implemented to reproduce the combined contribution of the different flow components of the system. A satisfactory simulation (Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient = 0.72) of measured spring flow rates was obtained after calibration. Climate change conditions (+1 to +3 °C warming, −10 to −30 % less precipitation annually, and intensification of rain events) were added to a baseline climatic year to produce scenarios of expected spring flow responses. Results show that the Qachqouch karst aquifer is sensitive to decreasing rainfall, which is associated with more pronounced recessions, with flow rates decreasing by 34 % and 1-month longer dry periods. Because of the limited influence of snow on the spring flow rate, a warming climate has less impact on spring flow conditions than a reduction in precipitation. Although the model shows that increasing rainfall intensity induces larger floods, recessions and shorter low flow periods, the real impact of high-intensity precipitation events remains uncertain, since the model does not account for complex unsaturated and epikarst processes. This work shows that calibrating a semi-distributed lumped model using time series analysis can be an efficient approach to improve simulations of complex karst aquifers, thus providing useful models for long-term sustainable water management.

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Section: Dynamic Functioning and Spring Responses To Potential Futuresupporting

confidence: 66%

Section: Dynamic Functioning and Spring Responses To Potential Futurementioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Calibration of a semi-distributed lumped karst system model and analysis of its sensitivity to climate conditions: the example of the Qachqouch karst spring (Lebanon)

Dubois

Doummar

Pistre

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Climate change is expected to influence all parts of the hydrological cycle, including recharge and groundwater drought (e.g., Chen et al, 2018;Cuthbert et al, 2019;Eckhardt & Ulbrich, 2003;Hunkeler et al, 2014;Taylor et al, 2012). The large diversity of groundwater responses across Germany indicates regionally different vulnerabilities to changes in the precipitation amount, intensity, or seasonality as well as the drought frequency of different drought types.…”

Section: Water Resources Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large‐Scale Assessment of Delayed Groundwater Responses to Drought

Hellwig

Graaf

Weiler

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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Groundwater is a vital resource for freshwater supply during extended droughts and also a key storage governing drought propagation through the hydrological cycle. Current drought monitoring lacks large‐scale estimates of groundwater droughts, but progress of country‐to‐global‐scale models in the last years suggests that they could now be valuable tools to study and monitor water availability during extended droughts. As a prerequisite the models would need to be able to depict the diverse groundwater response to precipitation well enough to distinguish spatial differences. Here we developed a high‐resolution transient groundwater model for Germany and tested its ability for representing the groundwater system dynamics with a focus on droughts. Validation of model results against streamflow‐separated baseflow and groundwater head observation confirmed the model's ability to generally represent the groundwater head dynamics over 40 years with lower model performance in mountainous regions where model resolution was too low to capture local valley aquifers. The precipitation accumulation time that has the highest correlation with groundwater anomalies increases with hydraulic conductivity and specific yield from few months in the Central German Uplands to several years in the porous aquifers of northern Germany. Corresponding to these differences, distinct meteorological drought types led to different simulated groundwater reactions across Germany. Given the importance of groundwater as a resource, large‐scale groundwater models are important tools for future studies on drought propagation as well as groundwater drought under climate change.

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Identification of karst spring hydrographs using laboratory and numerical simulations considering combined discrete‐continuum approaches

Chen,

Shu,

Lian

et al. 2023

Hydrological Processes

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The quantitative analysis of karst spring hydrographs aids in characterizing the hydrodynamic properties of aquifer systems. However, the relationships between spring hydrographs and hydrologic functions of different media lack in‐depth research. This study detected the rainfall‐discharge processes of covered karst systems using two combined discrete‐continuum models (a coupled continuum‐pipe model and a hybrid model) developed based on laboratory experiments. An improved exponential function was used to decompose spring recession hydrographs with a great performance, and the results indicate that the slow drainage controlled by the porous medium dominates the whole recession process. There is a shift in the contribution of the matrix to karst discharge systems with the increase of its hydraulic conductivity. Although spring hydrographs have a great dependency on the hydraulic process of fracture networks, the variation in permeability of the matrix significantly changes the storage capacity of fractured rocks and spring discharge behaviours. The changing process of water storage rate of the matrix and fractures with spring hydrographs reveals three stages: a period of steep rise and fall, a period with slight fluctuations, and a gentle descent stage. The parameter sensitivity analysis in both models shows that the covering porous layer has a strong effect on the patterns of karst spring hydrographs, and the specific yield is more sensitive than hydraulic conductivity. While these simulations were conducted at the laboratory scale, the findings provide insights into practical applications of spring protection and water resources management.

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Dynamics of water fluxes and storages in an Alpine karst catchment under current and potential future climate conditions

Cited by 68 publications

References 50 publications

Calibration of a semi-distributed lumped karst system model and analysis of its sensitivity to climate conditions: the example of the Qachqouch karst spring (Lebanon)

Calibration of a semi-distributed lumped karst system model and analysis of its sensitivity to climate conditions: the example of the Qachqouch karst spring (Lebanon)

Large‐Scale Assessment of Delayed Groundwater Responses to Drought

Identification of karst spring hydrographs using laboratory and numerical simulations considering combined discrete‐continuum approaches

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