Dynamics of land‐use changes and their future trends using spatial analysis and the <scp>CA‐Markov</scp> model—A case‐study with a special emphasis on aquaculture development in India

Jayanthi, M.; Duraisamy, Muthusamy; Thirumurthy, S.; Samynathan, Muthusamy; Muralidhar, M.

doi:10.1002/ldr.3917

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Simulation of land‐use patterns based on the cellular automata (CA) model is well established. The commonly used CA simulation models in recent years include the FLUS and geographical simulation and optimization system (GeoSOS) models (Jayanthi et al, 2021). The future land use simulation (FLUS) model uses artificial neural networks to couple different driving factors to calculate the cell's land adaptability probability and adaptive inertia and competition mechanisms to solve the complexity and uncertainty of the conversion of different land‐use types.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early warning of regional land‐use ecological security issues: A case‐study of Xingguo County, China

et al. 2022

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Poor land use remains a major threat to ecological security. Land ecological security early warning and simulation of land‐use patterns based on the ‘anti‐planning’ theory provide many research bases for maintaining land ecological security. However, their utility with respect to illegal development and construction is limited. This study defines the concept of early warning based regional land‐use ecological security and builds a framework system for it. A case‐study investigation was carried out using land use, natural geography and social and economic basic data in Xingguo County, Jiangxi Province, China. The ecological red line zone (a sustainable ecological infrastructure for regional development similar to the municipal infrastructure) of the case area was 1816.16 km2, accounting for 56.49% of the total area; the core zone was 138.23 km2, accounting for 4.30% of the total area. For the natural development scenario, regional construction land pattern changes spread from the centre to the surroundings. In early warning land‐use ecological security, serious alerts were more concentrated in Lianjiang Town, Changgang Township, and Butou Township; moderate alerts were less concentrated and distributed in Longping Township and light alerts were more scattered and distributed in many townships. We propose corresponding prevention strategies for different levels of alerts. The construction of an early warning mechanism for regional land‐use ecological security can assist land spatial planning in regional development. More importantly, it can formulate land‐use ecological risk prevention strategies in advance.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early warning of regional land‐use ecological security issues: A case‐study of Xingguo County, China

et al. 2022

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“…LUESP, as an important way to maintain ecological land security and sustainable development, has attracted a lot of attention, and the regulation and simulation of LUESP through various models has become research ‘hot topics’ (Fan et al, 2018; Fu et al, 2021; Xie et al, 2019). Previous studies have indicated that the static simulation has shifted to dynamic simulation in the focus of land‐use pattern simulation, which prompts the maturity of the dynamic simulation model (Zhu et al, 2020), and others such as the cellular automata (CA) model (Jayanthi et al, 2021; Ma, 2020; Yang et al, 2012), multi‐agent system (MAS) (Tian et al, 2016), the CLUMondo model (Wang et al, 2020; Zhu et al, 2020), and the CLEU‐S model (Huang et al, 2019; Liu et al, 2017). However, current progress with land‐use ecological security regulation simulation research is still deficient in the following two aspects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regulation simulation of land‐use ecological security, based on a CA model and GIS: A case‐study in Xingguo County, China

2022

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Ecological land is constantly modified by agriculture and construction, which leads to soil erosion, land degradation, soil pollution flood disasters, and many other land ecological security problems, threatening sustainable development. Few studies have been made to construct a land‐use ecological security pattern (LUESP) aimed at achieving urban expansion, food security, and ecological security from the perspective of land‐use needs. This study seeks to provide decision makers with the choice of multi‐scenario LUESPs by simulating the LUESP under different scenarios, offering a reasonable land‐use ecological security regulation strategy. In this paper, the ecological security evaluation method was used to identify key ecological space of a study area and the scenario analysis method was used to set up three security scenarios: ideal security (IS) scenario, satisfactory security (SS) scenario, and bottom‐line security (BS) scenario, thereby constructing the constrained cellular automata (CA) model of the LUESP and simulating the LUESPs under three security scenarios for Xingguo County, China. The results showed that the LUESP construction land index and arable land index did not exceed the total amount of the General Plan of Land Use in Xingguo County under the three security scenarios. Moreover, both key ecological space loss and landscape fragmentation degree were greatly reduced, the ecological patches tend to cluster, and the anti‐jamming ability of the landscape pattern was enhanced. The ranking of LUESPs under three security scenarios was as follows: BS scenario > SS scenario > IS scenario. These results implied that the LUESPs met the demand for land in Xingguo County for ecological security, food security, and economic development, while space occupied is different under three security scenarios. The decision makers can adopt appropriate land‐use ecological security regulation strategies according to the future development plans of the region.

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“…Assessing, simulating, and predicting changes in LULC is beneficial to land use planners and decision-makers, helping them to formulate plans in a sustainable and responsible way ( Jayanthi et al., 2021 ). Models are especially useful for addressing this problem.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of landscape change on habitat quality in arid desert areas based on future scenarios: Tarim River Basin as a case study

Zhang

Chen

2022

Front. Plant Sci.

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Human activities have caused spatiotemporal patterns of land use and land cover (LULC) change. The LULC change has directly affected habitat quality (HQ) and ecosystem functions. Assessing, simulating, and predicting spatiotemporal changes and future trends under different scenarios of LULC-influenced HQ is beneficial to land use planners and decision-makers, helping them to formulate plans in a sustainable and responsible way. This study assesses and simulates the HQ of the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the future land use simulation model (FLUS), the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Since 2000, the TRB has experienced a declining trend in HQ from 0.449 to 0.444, especially in the lower elevations (740-2000m) and on sloped land (<10°). The decline will continue unless effective and sustainable plans are implemented to halt it. Agricultural and settlement areas have a lower HQ and a higher degree of habitat degradation than native habitats. This shows that the expansion of oasis agriculture (with an annual growth rate of 372.17 km2) and settlements (with an annual growth rate of 23.50 km2) has caused a decline in native habitat and subsequent habitat fragmentation. In other words, changes in LULC have caused a decline in the HQ. Moreover, there is a significant negative correlation between HQ and urbanization rate (p<0.01), and the PLSR also indicate that number of patches (NP), area-weighted mean fractal dimension index (FRAC_AM), percentage of landscape (PLAND), and largest patch index (LPI) were also important contributors to worsening the HQ. Therefore, the TRB urgently needs appropriate strategies to preserve its natural habitats into the future, based on the ecological priority scenario (EPS) and harmonious development scenario (HDS), which can help to maintain a high-quality habitat.

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Dynamics of land‐use changes and their future trends using spatial analysis and the CA‐Markov model—A case‐study with a special emphasis on aquaculture development in India

Cited by 8 publications

References 39 publications

Early warning of regional land‐use ecological security issues: A case‐study of Xingguo County, China

Early warning of regional land‐use ecological security issues: A case‐study of Xingguo County, China

Regulation simulation of land‐use ecological security, based on a CA model and GIS: A case‐study in Xingguo County, China

The effects of landscape change on habitat quality in arid desert areas based on future scenarios: Tarim River Basin as a case study

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