Dynamics of indirect land-use change: Empirical evidence from Brazil

Abstract

The expansion of a given land use may affect deforestation directly if forests are cleared to free land for this use, or indirectly, via the displacement of other landuse activities from non-forest areas towards the forest frontier. Unlike direct land conversion, indirect land-use changes affecting deforestation are not immediately observable. They require the linking of changes occurring in different regions. This paper empirically estimates these indirect effects for the case of Brazil. It presents evidence of a positive relationship between sugarcane expansion in the south of the country and cattle ranching in the Amazon, suggesting that the former is indeed displacing the latter towards the forest frontier. This displacement effect is shown to be a dynamic process materializing over 10 to 15 years.

Land-use trends and environmental governance policies in Brazil: Paths forward for sustainability

“…Andrade de Sá et al (2013) show that a necessary condition for displacement is that the output of the displaced activity faces a relatively inelastic demand, which might be the case, for instance, if the displaced crop is a staple food produced and consumed locally, or if the country is a major producer and exporter such that its supply affects international prices.…”

“…(Lapola et al 2010;Arima et al 2011;Andrade de Sá et al 2013;Correa 2013). Other studies have pointed to recent deforestation in the Cerrado biome due to soybean and pasture expansion farther east and northeast in the biome, particularly in the States of Bahia, Maranhão, Piauí and Tocantins (Brannstrom 2009;IBGE 2013), although it is unclear whether these trends reflect iLUC from the southern Amazon.…”

“…(Lapola et al 2010;Arima et al 2011;Andrade de Sá et al 2013;Correa 2013) Additionally, official data on crop expansion provided earlier suggests a trend whereby national staples (rice, beans and cassavas) declined in area, making way for export and energy-oriented commodities such as soybeans and sugarcane.…”

“…Some studies in Brazil have examined the direct drivers of land-use change, especially in the Amazon biome and to a lesser extent in other biomes such as the Cerrado, including historical and spatial changes in those drivers (Barona et al 2010;Arima et al 2011;Barreto and Araújo 2012;IBGE 2012a;Sparovek et al 2012;Andrade de Sá et al 2013;Nasser and Moreira 2013). Barona et al (2010), among others, use spatially explicit analysis based on data at the municipality level on land use across the Brazilian Legal Amazon, between 2000 and 2006, to examine the spatial patterns and statistical relationships between deforestation and changes in pasture and soybean areas.…”

Can domestic production of iLUC-free feedstock from arable land supply Sweden’s future demand for biofuels?

“…In other words, iLUC are the theoretical changes in land use that take place as a consequence of a bioenergy project, but are geographically disconnected to it (Berndes, Ahlgren, Börjesson, & Cowie, 2013). Some studies used land use statistics and models to find empirical evidence of iLUC due to biofuel production (Arima, Richards, Walker, and Caldas (2011), Andrade de Sá, Palmer, and di Falco (2013) and Jusys (2017). These studies, which have a Brazilian focus, found that indirect changes often occur in close proximity to the biofuel raw material production.…”