Dynamics of HIV Infection and AIDS in Central African Cities

Auvert, Bertran; Moore, Melinda; Bertrand, William E.; Beauchet, Alain; Aegerter, Philippe; Lusamba, D; Diong, Kashala Tumba; Klinowski, Jacek

doi:10.1093/ije/19.2.417

Cited by 18 publications

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“…The probability of male-to-female transmission is twice that of female-to-male transmission. For both men and women the probability of transmission depends on whether the infected individual is in the early, intermediate, or late phase (10). The early phase covers the first 40 days and the late phase the last 360 days of the incubation period.…”

Section: Description Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main objective of this paper is to examine the relative importance of sexual behavior and biological factors on the HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa using a new version of the simulation model SimulAIDS (8)(9)(10). The model includes a number of parameters that can be used to give a detailed description of sexual behaviour making it possible to identify the particular factors that most strongly influence the HIV epidemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sexual Behavior, Heterosexual Transmission, and the Spread of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Simulation Study

Auvert

Buonamico

Lagarde

et al. 2000

Computers and Biomedical Research

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Section: Description Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sexual Behavior, Heterosexual Transmission, and the Spread of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Simulation Study

Auvert

Buonamico

Lagarde

et al. 2000

Computers and Biomedical Research

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“…Gupta, 1989;Garnett and Anderson, 1996). The other extreme are stochastic, comprehensive models simulating the dynamics of disease spread at the level of individuals and their interactions MICROSIMULATION MODEL 137 (Mode, 1988;Auvert, 1990;Leslie, 1990;Kretzschmar, 1993;Morris and Kretzschmar, 1995;Boily and Anderson, 1996;Ghani, 1997). The latter type of models is particularly suitable for application in specific epidemiological settings.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

HIV spread and partnership reduction for different patterns of sexual behaviour ‐ a study with the microsimulation modelSTDSIM

Korenromp¹,

Vliet

Bakker

et al. 2000

Mathematical Population Studies

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We studied how sexual behaviour affects population HIV spread simulating stylized risk profiles: (1) prostitution, no short relationships (resembling settings in South-East Asia);(2) prostitution, concurrent short relationships (resembling South-America and urban sub-Saharan Africa); (3) no prostitution, concurrent short relationships (resembling rural sub-Saharan Africa); (4) prostitution, serial short relationships (a generic low-risk setting).We explored the impact on HIV prevalence of prevention programs accomplishing postponement of sexual debut, reduction in partner change rate and in prostitution. We described the representation of sexual behaviour in the microsimulation model STDSIM, comparing it to non-individual-based models.The profiles generate markedly different time courses of HIV spread. Concentration of risk causes a rapid initial spread (Profiles 1 and 2), whereas the final prevalence depends more on the overall extent of risk behaviour in the general population (highest for Profiles 2 and 3). Effects of partnership reduction are strongly context dependent. Small decreases in numbers of partners reduce HIV spread considerably if they reflect Acknowledgements: The authors thank Hélène Voeten, the anonymous referees, and the participants of the IUSSP conference on Measuring Risk and Modelling the Spread of AIDS for their useful comments on the manuscript. The study was supported and financed by the Commission of the European Communities (contracts B7.6211/96/010 and B7.6211/97/017). Downloaded by [Athabasca University] at 08:56 07 June 2016 136 E. L. KORENROMP et al.decreases in the contacts of highest risk in that setting. In settings with risk behaviour dispersed over a large part of the population (Profiles 2 and 3), indirect effects can cause the impact on HIV to be disproportionately large compared to the magnitude of behaviour change.

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“…In that year, the prevalence of HIV infection was only 0.2% among pregnant women in Léopoldville, but it rose to 3% 10 years later [50]. Auvert et al [51] plotted the epidemic curve for Léopoldville. They back-calculate that the number of infected individuals already exceeded 10 in Léo-poldville in 1952 ‫ע‬ 5 years, placing the introduction well before the first OPV vaccination.…”

Section: Corroborative Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

CHAT Oral Polio Vaccine Was Not the Source of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Group M for Humans

Gellin

Modlin

Plotkin

2001

Clinical Infectious Diseases

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A book published in 1999 hypothesized that the scientists who worked with the CHAT type 1 attenuated poliomyelitis strain, tested in the former Belgian Congo in the late 1950s, had covertly prepared the vaccine in chimpanzee kidney cells contaminated with a simian immunodeficiency virus, which evolved into human immunodeficiency virus type 1 group M. This article summarizes the results of the investigation conducted by the author to determine the legitimacy of the accusation. Testimony by eyewitnesses, historical documents of the time, epidemiological analysis, and analysis of ancillary phylogenetic, virological, and polymerase chain reaction data all indicate that this hypothesis is false.Poliomyelitis is rapidly disappearing from the world, thanks in large part to the widespread use of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) strains developed by Albert Sabin. The precursors of the Sabin strains were those developed by Hilary Koprowski, first at the Lederle Laboratories and then at the Wistar Institute in Philadelphia. The results of the first administration of OPV to humans were published by Koprowski et al. in 1952 [1] and concerned the TN strain, later identified as type 2 poliovirus. A type 1 strain, called SM, was reported in 1954 [2], and its descendant, a virus called "CHAT" was reported in 1957 [3]. The latter strain concerns us here, for in 1999, a British journalist published a book called The River: A Journal to the Source of HIV and AIDS [4], which proposed the hypothesis that CHAT had been produced in cells from chimpanzees that were contaminated with the simian precursor of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) group M, the major agent of the AIDS epidemic. This article examines that hypothesis in detail.For a proper understanding of the events recalled in this article, the state of polio vaccine development in the late 1950s is germane. In the late 1950s, obtaining cultures of kidney cells from rhesus monkeys was routine, and commercial laboratories were selling trypsinized kidneys or monolayer cultures in glass bottles. The plaque technique of Dulbecco and Vogt had also come into general use, permitting for the first time cloning (in the old sense) of genetically distinct virus populations. (Therefore, whereas both the early TN type 2 and SM type 1 attenuated strains of Koprowski had been attenuated in rodents, the SM strain was then further attenuated by alternate passages in chick embryo and cultures of monkey kidney cells.) However, the SM strain appeared to be too neurovirulent [5,6], and a substrain called SM-N90 was passed 4 times serially in humans by oral administration of filtered fecal virus, isolated after replication in the intestine. After the fourth human passage, the virus was plaqued 4 times ("plaque purification") in cultures of monkey kidney cells, and the resultant strain was renamed CHAT, after the name of the baby in whom the last human passage had been made.The plaque passage history was shown in detail in Koprowski's article ( figure 1) [3] . The sequence of plaque passage was plaque 9 to plaque 13 to...

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Dynamics of HIV Infection and AIDS in Central African Cities

Cited by 18 publications

References 0 publications

Sexual Behavior, Heterosexual Transmission, and the Spread of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Simulation Study

Sexual Behavior, Heterosexual Transmission, and the Spread of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Simulation Study

HIV spread and partnership reduction for different patterns of sexual behaviour ‐ a study with the microsimulation modelSTDSIM

CHAT Oral Polio Vaccine Was Not the Source of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Group M for Humans

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