Dynamics of Antibodies to Ebolaviruses in an Eidolon helvum Bat Colony in Cameroon

Djomsi, Dowbiss Meta; Djonzo, Flaubert Mba; Bass, Innocent Ndong; Champagne, Maëliss; Lacroix, Audrey; Thaurignac, Guillaume; Esteban, Amandine; Nys, Hélène M. De; Bourgarel, Mathieu; Akoachere, Jane-Francis Tatah Kihla; Delaporte, Éric; Ayouba, Ahidjo; Cappelle, Julien; Ngole, Eitel Mpoudi; Peeters, Martine

doi:10.3390/v14030560

Cited by 8 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(91 reference statements)

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“…The probability to not have an infectious bat in the samples tested by PCR in the (Djomsi et al, 2022) study was 0.00052 (6.6 × 10 −9 -4.2 × 10 −3 ). These probabilities are greatest during the first four to five months of the year.…”

Section: Probability Of Not Sampling An Infectious Batmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Nevertheless, false positive reactivity with other pathogens cannot be excluded for the serological assay used in our study, which may explain why all PCR tests remained negative -i.e. the viruses actually circulating and causing positive serology in E. helvum might not be in the detection range of the panfilovirus PCR of Djomsi et al (2022). However, other factors could also explain the lack of positive PCR test results, even if Ebola-related viruses actually are circulating within the bat population.…”

Section: Probability Of Serology-pcr Mismatchmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A Bayesian analysis of birth pulse effects on the probability of detecting Ebola virus in fruit bats

Pleydell,

Bass,

Mba Djondzo

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Since 1976 various species of Ebolavirus have caused a series of zoonotic outbreaks and public health crises in Africa. Bats have long been hypothesised to function as important hosts for ebolavirus maintenance, however the transmission ecology for these viruses remains poorly understood. Several studies have demonstrated rapid seroconversion for ebolavirus antibodies in young bats, yet paradoxically few PCR studies have confirmed the identity of the circulating viral species causing these seroconversions. The current study presents an age-structured epidemiological model that characterises the effects of seasonal birth pulses on ebolavirus transmission within a colony of African straw-coloured fruit bats (Eidolon helvum). Bayesian calibration is performed using previously published serological data collected from Cameroon, and age-structure data from Ghana. The model predicts that annual birth pulses most likely give rise to annual outbreaks, although more complex dynamic patterns – including multi-annual cycles and skip years – may be possible. Weeks 30 to 31 of each year were estimated to be the most likely period for isolating the circulating virus in Cameroon. The probability that a previous PCR campaign failed to detect Ebola virus, assuming that it was circulating, was estimated to be one in two thousand. This raises questions such as (1) what can we actually learn from ebolavirus serology tests performed without positive controls? (2) are current PCR tests sufficiently sensitive? (3) are swab samples really appropriate for ebolavirus extraction? The current results provide important insights for the design of future field studies aiming to extract Ebola viruses from sylvatic hosts, and can contribute to risk assessments concerning the timing of zoonotic outbreaks.

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Section: Probability Of Not Sampling An Infectious Batmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Probability Of Serology-pcr Mismatchmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bayesian analysis of birth pulse effects on the probability of detecting Ebola virus in fruit bats

Pleydell,

Bass,

Mba Djondzo

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Many bat species have highly synchronous birth cycles [34] that can translate into cycles of infection prevalence [32]. In addition, Ebolaviruses are cleared by their hosts and therefore viral shedding may only be detected during a brief window [38]. Thus, predicting transmission cycles of Ebolaviruses in putative reservoir hosts would help to optimize surveillance sampling and to understand spillover and the origins of Ebola virus disease in humans.…”

Section: Study Populations and Surveillance Samplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…helvum are commmon fruit bats that form large seasonal aggregations [38] and reproduce annually [41]. H. monstrosus form large breeding aggregations [42], but unlike E. helvum, reproduce semi-annually [41].…”

Section: Study Populations and Surveillance Samplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using serosurveys to optimize surveillance for zoonotic pathogens

Clancey,

Nuismer,

Seifert

2024

Preprint

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Zoonotic pathogens pose a significant risk to human health, with spillover into human populations contributing to chronic disease, sporadic epidemics, and occasional pandemics. Despite the widely recognized burden of zoonotic spillover, our ability to identify which animal populations serve as primary reservoirs for these pathogens remains incomplete. This challenge is compounded when prevalence reaches detectable levels only at specific times of year. In these cases, statistical models designed to predict the timing of peak prevalence could guide field sampling for active infections. Here we develop a general model that leverages routinely collected serosurveillance data to optimize sampling for elusive pathogens. Using simulated data sets we show that our methodology reliably identifies times when pathogen prevalence is expected to peak. We then apply our method to two putativeEbolavirusreservoirs, straw-colored fruit bats (Eidolon helvum) and hammer-headed bats (Hypsignathus monstrosus) to predict when these species should be sampled to maximize the probability of detecting active infections. In addition to guiding future sampling of these species, our method yields predictions for the times of year that are most likely to produce future spillover events. The generality and simplicity of our methodology make it broadly applicable to a wide range of putative reservoir species where seasonal patterns of birth lead to predictable, but potentially short-lived, pulses of pathogen prevalence.

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“…Remarkably, RNA detection of the recently discovered Bombali virus [157], which is probably not human-relevant [166,167], has been PCR-confirmed five times [168][169][170][171] in two species of free-tailed bats (erroneously 'fruit bats' in [167]) across four countries. Other links between bats and orthoebolaviruses are largely based on serology (electronic supplementary material, table S6d; [163,172,173]).…”

Section: (A) Contrasting Examples: Information On Bats As Reservoir H...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Robust evidence for bats as reservoir hosts is lacking in most African virus studies: a review and call to optimize sampling and conserve bats

Weber,

Nagy,

Markotter

et al. 2023

Biol. Lett.

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Africa experiences frequent emerging disease outbreaks among humans, with bats often proposed as zoonotic pathogen hosts. We comprehensively reviewed virus–bat findings from papers published between 1978 and 2020 to evaluate the evidence that African bats are reservoir and/or bridging hosts for viruses that cause human disease. We present data from 162 papers (of 1322) with original findings on (1) numbers and species of bats sampled across bat families and the continent, (2) how bats were selected for study inclusion, (3) if bats were terminally sampled, (4) what types of ecological data, if any, were recorded and (5) which viruses were detected and with what methodology. We propose a scheme for evaluating presumed virus–host relationships by evidence type and quality, using the contrasting available evidence for Orthoebolavirus versus Orthomarburgvirus as an example. We review the wording in abstracts and discussions of all 162 papers, identifying key framing terms, how these refer to findings, and how they might contribute to people's beliefs about bats. We discuss the impact of scientific research communication on public perception and emphasize the need for strategies that minimize human–bat conflict and support bat conservation. Finally, we make recommendations for best practices that will improve virological study metadata.

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Dynamics of Antibodies to Ebolaviruses in an Eidolon helvum Bat Colony in Cameroon

Cited by 8 publications

References 49 publications

A Bayesian analysis of birth pulse effects on the probability of detecting Ebola virus in fruit bats

A Bayesian analysis of birth pulse effects on the probability of detecting Ebola virus in fruit bats

Using serosurveys to optimize surveillance for zoonotic pathogens

Robust evidence for bats as reservoir hosts is lacking in most African virus studies: a review and call to optimize sampling and conserve bats

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