Dynamics of a Mathematical Model for Tuberculosis with Variability in Susceptibility and Disease Progressions Due to Difference in Awareness Level

Okuonghae, D.; Ikhimwin, B. O.

doi:10.3389/fmicb.2015.01530

Cited by 24 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Our principal finding in this study is that the quadruple control strategy, which includes distancing, latent case finding, case holding and active case finding control together is the most impactful and cost-effective approach for decreasing the spread of DS and MDR TB in Bangladesh. Our findings also suggests that to focus on a single control strategy will not dramatically affect the decline in DS and MDR TB in Bangladesh, whereas to combine two or more control strategies simultaneously will decrease the burden of DS and MDR TB in Bangladesh, which is found to be consistent with previous works [ 13 , 37 , 38 , 47 ].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Modeling drug-resistant tuberculosis amplification rates and intervention strategies in Bangladesh

et al. 2020

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Tuberculosis (TB) is the seventh leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Bangladesh. Although the National TB control program (NTP) of Bangladesh is implementing its nationwide TB control strategies, more specific and effective single or combination interventions are needed to control drug-susceptible (DS) and multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB. In this study, we developed a two strain TB mathematical model with amplification and fit it to the Bangladesh TB data to understand the transmission dynamics of DS and MDR TB. Sensitivity analysis was used to identify important parameters. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of varying combinations of four basic control strategies including distancing, latent case finding, case holding and active case finding, all within the optimal control framework. From our fitting, the model with different transmission rates between DS and MDR TB best captured the Bangladesh TB reported case counts. The estimated basic reproduction number for DS TB was 1.14 and for MDR TB was 0.54, with an amplification rate of 0.011 per year. The sensitivity analysis also indicated that the transmission rates for both DS and MDR TB had the largest influence on prevalence. To reduce the burden of TB (both DS and MDR), our finding suggested that a quadruple control strategy that combines distancing control, latent case finding, case holding and active case finding is the most cost-effective. Alternative strategies can be adopted to curb TB depending on availability of resources and policy makers' decisions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Modeling drug-resistant tuberculosis amplification rates and intervention strategies in Bangladesh

et al. 2020

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“…As a single-intervention, increasing the detection proportion was found to be the most effective strategy for reducing the incidence and mortality of DS and MDR-TB in Bangladesh compared to other single-intervention strategies, which is consistent with previous studies 25 , 26 . For DS-TB the second most effective intervention was improve treatment success rate, which reduces both mortality of the treated individual and transmission 1 .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…These tools inspire researchers to eliminate trial and error methods and direct them towards rational, evidence-based decisions 19 – 24 . For example, Okuonghae and Ikhimwin (2015) developed a realistic compartmental transmission dynamic TB model 25 . According to the awareness level of the population, Okuonghae and Ikhimwin model divided susceptible persons into two groups; the high risk group (low level of awareness), and low risk group (high level of awareness), and incorporated an active case finding parameter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario analysis for programmatic tuberculosis control in Bangladesh: a mathematical modelling study

Kuddus

Meehan

Sayem

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in Bangladesh. Although the National TB control program of Bangladesh is implementing a comprehensive expansion of TB control strategies, logistical challenges exist, and there is significant uncertainty concerning the disease burden. Mathematical modelling of TB is considered one of the most effective ways to understand the dynamics of infection transmission and allows quantification of parameters in different settings, including Bangladesh. In this study, we present a two-strain mathematical modelling framework to explore the dynamics of drug-susceptible (DS) and multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB in Bangladesh. We calibrated the model using DS and MDR-TB annual incidence data from Bangladesh from years 2001 to 2015. Further, we performed a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters and found that the contact rate of both strains had the largest influence on the basic reproduction numbers $${\text{R}}_{{0{\text{s}}}}$$ R 0 s and $${\text{R}}_{{0{\text{m}}}}$$ R 0 m of DS and MDR-TB, respectively. Increasingly powerful intervention strategies were developed, with realistic impact and coverage determined with the help of local staff. We simulated for the period from 2020 to 2035. Here, we projected the DS and MDR-TB burden (as measured by the number of incident cases and mortality) under a range of intervention scenarios to determine which of these scenario is the most effective at reducing burden. Of the single-intervention strategies, enhanced case detection is the most effective and prompt in reducing DS and MDR-TB incidence and mortality in Bangladesh and that with GeneXpert testing was also highly effective in decreasing the burden of MDR-TB. Our findings also suggest combining additional interventions simultaneously leads to greater effectiveness, particularly for MDR-TB, which we estimate requires a modest investment to substantially reduce, whereas DS-TB requires a strong sustained investment.

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“…Many studies show that more intensified case finding is needed especially in areas with higher prevalence of TB [14][15][16]. For instance, Brewer et al [17] indicated that active case finding of TB in homeless individuals in the USA is the most effective strategy that leads to a decrease in the death of the TB patients.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many different studies have been able to draw important conclusions on TB dynamics by means of models and other methods [23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33]. Okuonghae and Ikhimwin [16], for example, developed a model which classified the population by their TB awareness level, a key factor which could affect the case detection rate. Another factor which could contribute to better adjust TB models is the HIV dynamics, especially in the sub-Saharan African region [34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing Policymaking for Tuberculosis Control in Nigeria

et al. 2018

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Today, tuberculosis (TB) is still one of the major threats to humankind, being the first cause of death by an infectious disease worldwide. TB is a communicable chronic disease that every year affects 10 million people and kills almost 2 million people in the world. The main key factors fueling the disease are the progressive urbanization of the population and poverty-related socioeconomic factors. Moreover, the lack of effective tools for TB diagnosis, prevention, and treatment has decisively contributed to the lack of an effective model to predict TB spread. In Nigeria, the rapid urbanization along with unprecedented population growth is causing TB to be endemic. This paper proposes a mathematical model to evaluate TB burden in Nigeria by using data obtained from the local TB control program in the community. This research aims to point out effective strategies that could be used to effectively reduce TB burden and death due to TB in this country at different levels. The study shows that efforts should be oriented to more active case finding rather than increasing the treatment effectiveness only. It also reveals that the persistence of the disease is related to a large number of latently infected individuals and quantifies the lives that could be saved by increasing the notification rate using active case finding strategy. We conclude that undiagnosis is the bottleneck that needs to be overcome in addition to the incorporation, improvement, and/or strengthening of treatment management and other essential TB control measures in Nigeria.

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Dynamics of a Mathematical Model for Tuberculosis with Variability in Susceptibility and Disease Progressions Due to Difference in Awareness Level

Cited by 24 publications

References 20 publications

Modeling drug-resistant tuberculosis amplification rates and intervention strategies in Bangladesh

Modeling drug-resistant tuberculosis amplification rates and intervention strategies in Bangladesh

Scenario analysis for programmatic tuberculosis control in Bangladesh: a mathematical modelling study

Analyzing Policymaking for Tuberculosis Control in Nigeria

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