Dynamics and Impacts of the May 8th, 1902 Pyroclastic Current at Mount Pelée (Martinique): New Insights From Numerical Modeling

Gueugneau, Valentin; Kelfoun, Karim; Charbonnier, Sylvain; Germa, A.; Carazzo, Guillaume

doi:10.3389/feart.2020.00279

Cited by 24 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…The presence of an inverse coarse-tail grading and coarse clast trains (in Q. Pastores and Q. Grande) between the two units or discontinuous pumice lenses or clots at TABLE 3 | Input parameters of the two-layer VolcFlow model used for all simulations. The first ten rows refer to fixed input values defined from previous numerical studies (Kelfoun et al, 2017;Gueugneau et al, 2019;Gueugneau et al, 2020). The last two rows refer to parameters which varied in the simulations within the range of values explored.…”

Section: Pyroclastic Currents Unit3mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With such a large number of input parameters, a stochastic sampling may lead to poor calibration, and subsequently unrealistic simulations. Therefore, the empirical values selected for each of these input parameters are based on previous studies that have successfully reproduced PCs with the VolcFlow two-layer version, at Merapi (Kelfoun et al, 2017), Soufrière Hills Volcano (Gueugneau et al, 2019), and Mount Pelée (Gueugneau et al, 2020). When a range of values was already investigated by these previous studies, the lowest value is used here to obtain the least false negatives (i.e., areas inundated by the observed PCs where not simulated) as possible ( Table 3).…”

Section: Probabilistic Modeling Of the 2070 Cal Yr Bp Pyroclastic Curmentioning

confidence: 99%

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New Insights Into the 2070calyrBP Pyroclastic Currents at El Misti Volcano (Peru) From Field Investigations, Satellite Imagery and Probabilistic Modeling

et al. 2020

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Pyroclastic currents (PCs) are the most challenging volcanic hazards for disaster planners in populated areas around volcanoes. "El Misti" volcano (5,825 m above sea level), located only 17 km from the city center of Arequipa (>1.1 million inhabitants), South Peru, has produced small-to-moderate volume (<1 km 3) PCs with a frequency of 2,000-4,000 years over the past 50 kyr. The most recent Plinian eruption dated at 2070 cal yr BP (VEI 4) has been selected as one of the reference events for the hazard assessment and risk mitigation plan of Arequipa. Associated pumice-and lithic-rich PC deposits were emplaced from at least four phases of column-collapse into the radial valleys draining the volcano as far as 13 km toward the city. Field mapping and stratigraphic surveys conducted in seven valleys affected by the 2070 cal yr BP PCs were combined with a new high-resolution (2 m) digital surface model of the volcano to better estimate the distribution of individual PC volumes. Such data acquisition is particularly critical for two of these valleys (San Lázaro and Huarangal-Mariano Melgar) for which the medial and distal reaches now cross the suburbs of Arequipa. The total area covered by the PC deposits is estimated at 141 km 2 for a total bulk volume estimated at 406 ± 140 × 10 6 m 3. These volumes were used as input parameters to better calibrate probabilistic numerical simulations of future similar PC events using the two-layer VolcFlow model and assess the impacts of both the concentrated and dilute portions of these currents in the San Lázaro and Huarangal valleys. We discuss probability values of PC inundation obtained from these simulations both in terms of their implications for the dynamics of such hazardous PCs at El Misti and for their integration into its current multi-hazard assessment. Modeling results demonstrate that the risk of overbank processes and spreading of unconfined PCs inside Arequipa should be refined. This multidisciplinary study aims to help the civil authorities' understanding of the likely effects of PCs associated with a similar VEI 4 eruption of El Misti on the urban area of Arequipa.

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Section: Pyroclastic Currents Unit3mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Probabilistic Modeling Of the 2070 Cal Yr Bp Pyroclastic Curmentioning

confidence: 99%

New Insights Into the 2070calyrBP Pyroclastic Currents at El Misti Volcano (Peru) From Field Investigations, Satellite Imagery and Probabilistic Modeling

et al. 2020

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“…Directed blasts frequently have high dynamic pressure (over 10 kPa) close to source and along the primary flow axis, but lower dynamic pressures (less than 1 kPa) in more distal areas (e.g., Jenkins et al, 2013, Gueugneau et al 2020 and in measured cases have shown temperatures over 300 °C (Cole et al 2015). This results in a wide range of effects on humans, the built and natural environment, with fatalities and destruction from blunt trauma and thermal impacts in proximal zones, and with injuries and relatively little damage in the peripheral zones.…”

Section: High-energy Surgementioning

confidence: 99%

The hazards of unconfined pyroclastic density currents: a new synthesis and classification according to their deposits, dynamics, and thermal and impact characteristics

Lerner¹,

Jenkins²,

Charbonnier³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) that escape their confining channels are among the most dangerous of volcanic hazards. These unconfined PDCs are capable of inundating inhabited areas that may be unprepared for these hazards, resulting in significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. Despite their ability to cause serious impacts, unconfined PDCs have previously only been described for a limited number of specific case studies. Here, we carry out a broader comparative study that reviews the different types of unconfined PDCs, their deposits, dynamics and impacts, as well as the relationships between each element. Unconfined PDCs exist within a range of concentration, velocity and temperature: characteristics that are important in determining their impact. We define four end-member unconfined PDCs: 1. fast overspill flows, 2. slow overspill flows, 3. high-energy surges, and 4. low-energy detached surges (LEDS), and review characteristics and incidents of each from historical eruptions. These four end-members were all observed within the 2010 eruptive sequence of Merapi, Indonesia. We use this well-studied eruption as a case study, in particular the villages of Bakalan, 13 km south, and Bronggang 14 km south of the volcano, which were impacted by slow overspill flows and LEDS, respectively. These two unconfined PDC types are the least described from previous eruptions, but during the Merapi eruption the overspill flow resulted in building destruction and the LEDS in significant loss of life. We discuss the dynamics and deposits of these unconfined PDCs, and the resultant impacts. We then use the lessons learned from the 2010 Merapi eruption to assess some of the impacts associated with the deadly 2018 Fuego, Guatemala eruption. Satellite imagery and media images supplementing fieldwork were used to determine the presence of both overspill flows and LEDS, which resulted in the loss of hundreds of lives and the destruction of hundreds of buildings in inundated areas within 9 km of the summit. By cataloguing unconfined PDC characteristics, dynamics and impacts, we aim to highlight the importance and value of accounting for such phenomena in emergency management and planning at active volcanoes.

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“…The proposed methodology for the estimation of the associated uncertainty is of importance for these very simplified models, as uncertainty propagates into the final hazard maps largely by contributing to the define extents of the areas with different probabilities of invasion. In addition, volume, sometimes together with MRL, is a basic parameter to initialize either kinetic or depth-averaged models (VolcFlow, Kelfoun and Druitt 2005;Gueugneau et al 2020;TITAN2D, Patra et al 2005, 2020 and, despite the uncertainty in its calculation (see section 5.3), even TGSDs might be employed efficiently within numerical models. In particular, TGSD could be either used whole for some models (Biagioli et al 2019;Aravena et al 2020) or to derive representative grain size parameters such as, the Sauter mean diameter (Breard et al 2019;Valentine 2020).…”

Section: Numerical Modeling Of Pdcs and Applicability Of The Proposedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating eruptive parameters and related uncertainties for pyroclastic density currents deposits: worked examples from Somma-Vesuvius (Italy)

et al. 2020

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The quantification of the maximum runout, invaded area, volume and total grain-size distribution (TGSD) of pyroclastic density currents (PDC) is a critically important task because such parameters represent the needed input quantities for physical modeling and for hazard assessment of PDCs. In this work, new and well-established methods for the quantification of these parameters are applied to a large stratigraphic dataset of three PDC units from two eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius (the AD 79 Pompeii and the AD 472 Pollena eruptions), representative of a large spectrum of transport and depositional processes. Maximum runout and invaded area are defined on the basis of the available volcanological and topographical constraints. The related uncertainties are evaluated with an expert judgement procedure, which considered the different sectors of the volcano separately. Quite large uncertainty estimates of dispersal area (20-40%) may have important implications in terms of hazard assessment. The testing of different methods for estimating the volume (and mass) of a PDC deposit suggests that integration, over the invaded area, of thickness (and deposit density) data using the triangulated irregular network method can minimize and localize data extrapolation. Such calculations, however, bear an intrinsic additional uncertainty (at least 10% of the total PDC deposit) related to loss or new formation of fine material during transport (at least 10% of the total PDC deposit). Different interpolation methods for TGSD produce multimodal distributions, likely reflecting the different response of each grain size class to transport and deposition processes. These data, when integrated with information on the related co-ignimbrite deposits, can give a more accurate picture of the pyroclastic mixture feeding the current. Response to Reviewers: Dear Associate Editor, we have addressed all the requests for the revision, which are detailed in the following letter and in the manuscript with tracked changes. Furthermore, we have embedded figure captions in each figure's file, and we have checked the formatting of the references and the bibliography. Please let us know if you need also the figures withouth the captions.

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Dynamics and Impacts of the May 8th, 1902 Pyroclastic Current at Mount Pelée (Martinique): New Insights From Numerical Modeling

Cited by 24 publications

References 75 publications

New Insights Into the 2070calyrBP Pyroclastic Currents at El Misti Volcano (Peru) From Field Investigations, Satellite Imagery and Probabilistic Modeling

New Insights Into the 2070calyrBP Pyroclastic Currents at El Misti Volcano (Peru) From Field Investigations, Satellite Imagery and Probabilistic Modeling

The hazards of unconfined pyroclastic density currents: a new synthesis and classification according to their deposits, dynamics, and thermal and impact characteristics

Estimating eruptive parameters and related uncertainties for pyroclastic density currents deposits: worked examples from Somma-Vesuvius (Italy)

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