Dynamical simulation of the Syrian refugee crisis: quantifying the driving factors of forced migration

Abstract

With over 21 million refugees at the end of 2021, forced migration across national borders has become a global reality and a major international policy issue. This paper proposes a dynamical model based on the Syrian Refugee Crisis to quantify the factors that influence a refugee’s decision to migrate and the destination choice. The model simulates refugee migrations in space and time, from the moment they flee their country of origin until they are granted asylum in a host country or lose refugee status by attrition or repatriation. Migration is driven by comparative attractiveness scores based on differences in quality of life, political stability, societal violence, cultural familiarity, and distance between countries, while accounting for risk aversion and psychological inertia. By comparing simulation results to United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) data, we determine weight parameters that quantify the relative importance of each attribute in inducing a migration flow. The model is a computationally efficient forecasting and ex-post analysis tool, providing insight into the dynamics of refugee flow and effect of immigration policies.