Dynamical intervention planning against COVID-19-like epidemics

Abstract

COVID-19 has got us to face a new situation where, for the lack of ready-to-use vaccines, it is necessary to support vaccination with complex non-pharmaceutical strategies. In this paper, we provide a novel Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming formulation for fine-grained optimal intervention planning (i.e., at the level of the single day) against newborn epidemics like COVID-19, where a modified SIR model accounting for heterogeneous population classes, social distancing and several types of vaccines (each with its efficacy and delayed effects), allows us to plan an optimal mixed strategy (both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical) that takes into account both the vaccine availability in limited batches at selected time instants and the need for second doses while keeping hospitalizations and intensive care occupancy below a threshold and requiring that new infections die out at the end of the planning horizon. In order to show the effectiveness of the proposed formulation, we analyze a case study for Italy with realistic parameters.

Epidemic Persistence: Equilibria and Stability Analysis of Spread Process Dynamics over Networks, with Asymptomatic Carriers and Heterogeneous Model Parameters

“…As a result, mathematical modeling and simulation approaches provide essential alternatives for estimating and predicting when and how an epidemic might spread over a contact network [1]. Further, simulations of strategic control policies for validated epidemic models can provide insights into approaches for mitigating virus spread over networks [2].…”

Evaluating the COVID-19 impact in Italian regions via multi criteria analysis

“…Italy was the first country to place its entire national territory under a lockdown, beginning on the 10 th of March 2020. Freedom of movement was re-established only on May 4 th , 2020, and was accompanied by a series of mandatory non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as bans on public events, schools closure, the mandatory wearing of medical masks, active surveillance of clusters, and hygiene recommendations [ 2 – 4 ]. At the same time, new field hospitals were built throughout the whole nation as a response to the rapidly increasing demand for new intensive care units (ICUs) able to host such a high number of ventilator-dependent patients.…”