Dynamical Adjustment of the Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature Field: Methodology and Application to Observations*

Smoliak, Brian V.; Wallace, John M.; Lin, Pu; Fu, Qiang

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00111.1

Cited by 92 publications

(110 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…The dynamical adjustment methodology used in this study has been improved by Smoliak et al (2015). The exact process of partial least squares (PLS) is to derive monthly dynamical adjustment of the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature field in a point-wise manner, namely, the temperature time series of each grid point is a predictand.…”

Section: Dynamical Adjustment Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, Zn, which are mutually orthogonal, taking care to high-pass filter each successive residual temperature time series prior to calculating correction patterns (step 1). In our study, the improved dynamical adjustment methodology (Smoliak et al, 2015) has been applied to the temperature data set and three predictors are retained, which are determined by cross-validation.…”

Section: Dynamical Adjustment Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming in the cold season over east Asia

et al. 2015

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Abstract.As climate change has occurred over east Asia since the 1950s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the observed warming in past decades. In this study, we investigate regional surface temperature change during the boreal cold season using a recently developed methodology that can successfully identify and separate the dynamically induced temperature (DIT) and radiatively forced temperature (RFT) changes in raw surface air temperature (SAT) data. For regional averages, DIT and RFT contribute 44 and 56 % to the SAT over east Asia, respectively. The DIT changes dominate the SAT decadal variability and are mainly determined by internal climate variability, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). Radiatively forced SAT changes have made a major contribution to the global-scale warming trend and the regionalscale enhanced semi-arid warming (ESAW). Such enhanced warming is also found in radiatively forced daily maximum and minimum SAT. The long-term global-mean SAT warming trend is mainly related to radiative forcing produced by global well-mixed greenhouse gases. The regional anthropogenic radiative forcing, however, caused the enhanced warming in the semi-arid region, which may be closely associated with local human activities. Finally, the relationship between the so-called "global warming hiatus" and regional enhanced warming is discussed.

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Section: Dynamical Adjustment Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Dynamical Adjustment Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming in the cold season over east Asia

et al. 2015

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“…Guan et al . [] investigated the driving factors of the enhanced semiarid warming (ESAW) by using a recently developed method that can identify and separate the temperature change into dynamically induced and radiatively forced changes [ Wallace et al ., ; Smoliak et al ., ]. The results showed that the warming trend on the global and regional scales is mainly due to radiatively forced temperature (RFT) changes as a result of GHGs, land cover change, clouds, aerosols, and human activities.…”

Section: Impacts Of Atmosphere‐land Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges

Huang

et al. 2017

Reviews of Geophysics

554

331

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Drylands are home to more than 38% of the world's population and are one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and human activities. This review describes recent progress in dryland climate change research. Recent findings indicate that the long‐term trend of the aridity index (AI) is mainly attributable to increased greenhouse gas emissions, while anthropogenic aerosols exert small effects but alter its attributions. Atmosphere‐land interactions determine the intensity of regional response. The largest warming during the last 100 years was observed over drylands and accounted for more than half of the continental warming. The global pattern and interdecadal variability of aridity changes are modulated by oceanic oscillations. The different phases of those oceanic oscillations induce significant changes in land‐sea and north‐south thermal contrasts, which affect the intensity of the westerlies and planetary waves and the blocking frequency, thereby altering global changes in temperature and precipitation. During 1948–2008, the drylands in the Americas became wetter due to enhanced westerlies, whereas the drylands in the Eastern Hemisphere became drier because of the weakened East Asian summer monsoon. Drylands as defined by the AI have expanded over the last 60 years and are projected to expand in the 21st century. The largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semiarid regions since the early 1960s. Dryland expansion will lead to reduced carbon sequestration and enhanced regional warming. The increasing aridity, enhanced warming, and rapidly growing population will exacerbate the risk of land degradation and desertification in the near future in developing countries.

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“…Versions of this methodology have been applied to terrestrial surface air temperatures to understand and attribute warming trends over the NH (Deser et al, 2016;Lehner et al, 2017;Smoliak et al, 2015) and to identify hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling (Merrifield et al, 2017 The benefit of this approach is that it provides an observationally based estimate of response to anthropogenic forcing that is independent of climate models.…”

Section: 1029/2018gl081316mentioning

confidence: 99%

Human Influence on Winter Precipitation Trends (1921–2015) over North America and Eurasia Revealed by Dynamical Adjustment

Guo

Deser

Terray

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Detecting and attributing a human influence on observed rainfall trends is a major challenge due to the presence of large amplitude internal variability on all time scales and by limited temporal and spatial data coverage. Here we apply a “dynamical adjustment” methodology to a gridded archive of monthly precipitation to estimate an anthropogenic influence on long‐term (1920–2015) trends over North America and Eurasia during winter (November–March). This empirical approach aims to remove atmospheric circulation influences from precipitation variability and trends, thereby revealing the thermodynamically induced component as a residual. The geographical pattern and amplitude of this observed thermodynamic residual precipitation trend are in good agreement with anthropogenically forced trends obtained from ensembles of historical climate model simulations. Such consistency helps to reconcile observations and models and provides compelling evidence for a human influence on century‐scale precipitation trends over North America and Eurasia during the cold season.

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Dynamical Adjustment of the Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature Field: Methodology and Application to Observations*

Cited by 92 publications

References 58 publications

Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming in the cold season over east Asia

Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming in the cold season over east Asia

Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges

Human Influence on Winter Precipitation Trends (1921–2015) over North America and Eurasia Revealed by Dynamical Adjustment

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