Dynamic stability of an SIQS epidemic network and its optimal control

Li, Kezan; Zhu, Guanghu; Ma, Zhongjun; Chen, Lijuan

doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2018.06.020

Cited by 57 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…In this section, we build a stylized model of epidemics on networks [3,4] and, in contrast to the previous literature, consider the possible negative effects of a quarantine that is not homogeneous [5][6][7]. We argue that when a disease spreads in a population with heterogeneous intensity of meetings-a so-called complex network-if the individuals who meet many people exhibit high resistance against isolation policies, such policies may not only turn out to be ineffective, but can even be detrimental.…”

Section: Si-type Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Covid19: Unless one gets everyone to act, policies may be ineffective or even backfire

Muscillo

Razzolini

2020

PLoS ONE

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The diffusion of Covid-19 has called governments and public health authorities to interventions aiming at limiting new infections and containing the expected number of critical cases and deaths. Most of these measures rely on the compliance of people, who are asked to reduce their social contacts to a minimum. In this note we argue that individuals' adherence to prescriptions and reduction of social activity may not be efficacious if not implemented robustly on all social groups, especially on those characterized by intense mixing patterns. Actually, it is possible that, if those who have many contacts have reduced them proportionally less than those who have few, then the effect of a policy could have backfired: the disease has taken more time to die out, up to the point that it has become endemic. In a nutshell, unless one gets everyone to act, and specifically those who have more contacts, a policy may even be counterproductive.

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Section: Si-type Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Covid19: Unless one gets everyone to act, policies may be ineffective or even backfire

Muscillo

Razzolini

2020

PLoS ONE

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“…The asymptomatic nodes are infectious but without symptoms. As a difference, the infected nodes (at state I) are symptomatic, and are immediately detected and quarantined [43] . Namely, the infected nodes are in fact unable to infect others.…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of social distancing on the spread of infectious diseases with asymptomatic infection: A mathematical model

Huang

Chen

Yan

2021

Applied Mathematics and Computation

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“…Wang et al [ 19 ] studied the synchronization problem of continuous time dynamical system networks with small-world connections. Li et al [ 20 ] introduced a nonlinear SIQS epidemic model based on small-world network. By using complex network theory and Lyapunov function, the basic reproduction number and global stability of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are obtained.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Small-world effects in a modified epidemiological model with mutation and permanent immune mechanism

et al. 2021

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Pandemic with mutation and permanent immune spreading in a small-world network described is studied by a modified SIR model, with consideration of mutation-immune mechanism. First, a novel mutation-immune model is proposed to modify the classical SIR model to simulate the transmission of mutable viruses that can be permanently immunized in small-world networks. Then, the influences of the size, coordination number and disorder parameter of the small-world network on the spread of the epidemic are analyzed in detail. Finally, the influences of mutation cycle and infection rate on epidemic transmission in small-world network are investigated further. The results show that the structure of the small-world network and the virus mutation cycle have an important impact on the spread of the epidemic. For viruses that can be permanently immunized, virus mutation is equivalent to making the immune cycle of human beings from infinite to finite. The dynamical behavior of the modified SIR epidemic model changes from an irregular, low-amplitude evolution at small disorder parameter to a spontaneous state of wide amplitude oscillations at large disorder parameter. Moreover, similar transition can also be found in increasing mutation cycle parameter. The maximum valid variation mutation decreases with the increase of disorder parameter and coordination number, but increase with respect to system size. In addition above, as the infection rate increases, the fraction of the infected increases and then decreases. As the mutation cycle increases, the time-average fraction of the infected and the infection rate corresponding to the maximum time-average fraction of the infected also decrease. As one conclusion, the results could give a deep understanding Pandemic with mutation and permanent immune spreading, from viewpoint of small-world network.

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Dynamic stability of an SIQS epidemic network and its optimal control

Cited by 57 publications

References 32 publications

Covid19: Unless one gets everyone to act, policies may be ineffective or even backfire

Covid19: Unless one gets everyone to act, policies may be ineffective or even backfire

Impacts of social distancing on the spread of infectious diseases with asymptomatic infection: A mathematical model

Small-world effects in a modified epidemiological model with mutation and permanent immune mechanism

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