Dynamic spillover analysis of international and Turkish food prices

Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat; Seven, Ünal

doi:10.1002/ijfe.2517

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The literature provides some insights into the possible reasons for the periods with bubbles and their relation to Turkey. Food production, CDS spreads, interest rates, fertilizer prices, and raw-material prices, exchange rates, oil prices, fastest growth in exports, low productivity, rising input costs (Agriculture-PPI 2015 = 100 April 2013 index value is 804.64), inflation expectations, demand-side pressures of a growing population, changing consumer preferences, and supply-side elements such as low productivity, dominant players in the retail industry preventing price competitiveness, cost of capital, migration and aging rural populations, low productivity, agricultural education, and problems in the food supply chain are some of the reasons for the formation of food price bubbles [92][93][94][95][96][97][98]. Exchange rates have a strong impact on domestic food prices in countries that are highly dependent on imports of energy, fertilizers, and chemicals [99].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF

Özcan

2023

Sustainability

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Food price bubbles are a phenomenon in which the cost of some food items or food commodities climbs quickly and unreasonably before collapsing due to reasons such as speculation, supply and demand imbalances, meteorological occurrences, and governmental actions. Governments and academics keep an eye on food prices to spot and address these bubbles. The aim of this paper is to analyze the food price bubble phenomenon despite the global slowdown by examining its origins, consequences, and policy solutions. The study’s contribution lies in its investigation of the presence of a potential bubble formation in food prices, which have experienced a surge globally and particularly in Turkey in recent years. The research examines the behavior of bubble formation in food prices in Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF between 1992 and 2022 using the ADF, SADF, and GSADF tests. These tests can help identify when asset prices deviate significantly from their fundamental values and may be at risk of a sharp correction. The TUR, FAO, OECD, and IMF variables all show distinct bubble formations, with the TUR variable having 130 periods from 1995 to 2006, the FAO having 8 price bubble occurrences, the OECD having 12 different bubble formations, and the IMF having 4 distinct bubble formations. The results indicate the existence of food price bubbles that demonstrate disparities from their inherent values grounded in market fundamentals.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF

Özcan

2023

Sustainability

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“…Although oil prices and worldwide food prices have not had a substantial impact, domestic factors such as producer pricing, interest rate, exchange rate and money supply were found to be contributing causes to the high price of food. In a different study, Ertuğrul and Seven (2021) showed that while oil prices lessen the growing gap between Turkish and international food costs, the exchange rate exerted a significant effect on it.…”

Section: Review Of Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The growing and wealthier global population also have an impact on the production and consumption of agricultural products. Climate change-related global warming can potentially have a detrimental impact on agricultural production and lead to an increase in food costs (Ertuğrul & Seven, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Nigeria

Shehu,

Abdullahi,

Mustapha

2023

gijmss

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In Nigeria, inflation dynamics and food prices have been a major concern for policymakers and the public alike. In recent years, the country has experienced a surge in food prices, which has contributed to the rise in inflation. This study employs the linear autoregressive distributive lag model to investigate inflation dynamics and food prices in Nigeria, with a specific focus on identifying the fundamental factors driving the increase in food prices. Using annual data from 1990 to 2021, the study examines the relationships between oil price, exchange rate, money supply, and government expenditure, and their varying long- and short-term effects on inflation and food prices in Nigeria. The Bound test cointegration results confirm that the variables are cointegrated, highlighting the presence of a long-term relationship among them. Our findings reveal that higher oil prices exert a short-term large positive influence on food prices, but their long-term impact is negligible. Conversely, increased money supply significantly impacts food prices in both the short and long term. Additionally, an increased exchange rate inversely impacts food prices in the long-term. These results highlight crucial policy implications for curbing food price increases, reducing the welfare effects while, maintaining lower prices and ensuring its sustainability.

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“…Additionally, the exchange rate is identified as a critical factor that influences price difference, particularly in times of uncertainty when understanding the impact of exchange rate shocks on domestic prices (Ertugrul & Seven, 2023;Cheikh et al, 2023). Therefore, selecting the appropriate exchange rate regime is an ongoing evaluation that significantly impacts the growth of the business sector and plays a vital role in the development of market economies (Ghosh et al, 2015).…”

Section: The Impact Of Exchange Rate Change On the Hospitality Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Price Fairness on the Perceived Value and Customer Satisfaction Under the Exchange Rate Change in Hotels in Egypt

Rady,

Abdelaziz,

Touni

2023

Journal of Association of Arab Universities for Tourism and Hos

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Economic policies and exchange rate fluctuations significantly impact the hotel industry. These changes force hotels to focus on providing value based on customer purchasing power. Customers compare prices with the benefits gained from products or services provided. Therefore, price fairness is crucial to determining value and customer satisfaction. Specifically, when the value of the product or service matches the price. Based on the current change in the exchange rate and its impact on prices and customers' evaluations of products and services in hotels, and a lack of previous studies that dealt with the topic in Egypt. The research developed and examined a conceptual model grounded on three theoretical perspectives; equity theory, dual entitlement theory, and expectation-disconfirmation theory. The proposed model investigated the relationship between price fairness, perceived value, and customer satisfaction under the exchange rate change in hospitality industry in Egypt. Both paper-based questionnaires and web-based questionnaires were distributed to a stratified random sample of 384 guests in three, four, and five-star hotels in the Red Sea and Luxor governorates. The results show that the change in the Egyptian pound exchange rate increased food and beverage prices, and accommodation prices in hotels, moreover had a positive impact on the tourists' decision to purchase. Additionally, price fairness affects both the perceived value (functional, emotional, social, and value for money, and customer satisfaction. Moreover, perceived value acts as a mediator in the relationship between price fairness and customer satisfaction. This research contributes to filling a knowledge gap and offers practical implications. https://jaauth.journals.ekb.eg / customer satisfaction under the exchange rate change in hotels in Egypt, (4) investigate the impact of perceived value on customer satisfaction under the exchange rate change in hotels in Egypt, (5) explore the mediating role of perceived value in the relationship between price fairness and customer satisfaction under the exchange rate change in hotels in Egypt, (6) provide recommendations that may contribute to filling the knowledge gap and offer practical implications. Literature Review 2.1. Exchange Rate ConceptThe exchange rate, defined as the number of foreign currency units required to convert one domestic currency unit, serves as a crucial determinant of the foreign currency's value relative to the home country's currency (Katmas & Indarningsih, 2022;Soukotta et al., 2023). Moreover, the exchange rate establishes the value of foreign currency against the currency of the home country (Alstadheim et al., 2021). Furthermore, the exchange rate is described as "the connection between two connected currencies or the value of one currency for conversion to another" (Lezar, 2023, p. 89). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) prepared a rigorous methodology to calculate the weighted average exchange rate, through analyzing the proportion of transactions conducted at variou...

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Dynamic spillover analysis of international and Turkish food prices

Cited by 12 publications

References 29 publications

Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF

Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF

Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Nigeria

The Impact of Price Fairness on the Perceived Value and Customer Satisfaction Under the Exchange Rate Change in Hotels in Egypt

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