Dynamic species distribution models reveal spatiotemporal habitat shifts in native range‐expanding versus non‐native invasive birds in an urban area

Abstract

Urbanisation as a major driver of changes leads to the extinction of some species while others increase in abundance, especially non‐native species. Spatiotemporal distribution patterns of these successful species are likely to be shaped by their response and tolerance to urban features. This study assesses the anthropo‐ecological requirements of two co‐occurring bird species, the native range‐shifting jackdaw Corvus monedula and the non‐native invasive ring‐necked parakeet Psittacula krameri. We built yearly models over an eight‐year period using an ensemble modelling approach assessing response differences through time and between species. Predictors describing human‐made structures, socio‐ecological proxies and resources availability were extracted from temporally coincident databases. Dispersal and habitat constraints were implemented in final models to provide more realistic forecasts of species future distributions. Ensemble models evaluated with a random partition of the training dataset showed a higher accuracy than those evaluated with an independent dataset from another time period. Our results highlight temporal variations in the relative importance of predictors for both studied species. Single‐season occurrence data may thus be insufficient to characterize species ecological requirements. The ring‐necked parakeet and the jackdaw showed different responses to urban features. Jackdaws preferred the more urbanized part of the city while the distribution of parakeets was strongly positively associated with the density of exotic ornamental trees. We concluded that ring‐necked parakeet range expansion is likely to be driven by its effective ability to exploit urban resources which native species do not or under exploit, suggesting an open window of foraging opportunities. However, the jackdaw may be misled by a high cavity availability and a large amount of low‐quality anthropogenic food in the urban core. We suggest that dynamic SDMs are a critical tool not only to forecast the future expansion of invasive species but also for a better understanding of processes driving urban biodiversity persistence.

Comparing abundance distributions and range maps in spatial conservation planning for migratory species

“…, Le Louarn et al. ). Short‐term fluctuations in distribution throughout the annual cycle can be driven by species shifting habitats, tracking ephemeral resources, or migrating between regions (Fahse et al.…”

“…Populations are seldom completely static, but are characterized by spatiotemporal dynamics that unfold at a variety of scales. Long-term changes in the distribution of populations may be caused by climate change or land-use change (Massimino et al 2015, Le Louarn et al 2018). Short-term fluctuations in distribution throughout the annual cycle can be driven by species shifting habitats, tracking ephemeral resources, or migrating between regions (Fahse et al 1998, Skagen et al 2005, Runge et al 2016.…”

The importance of taxonomy in species distribution models at a global scale: the case of an overlooked alien squirrel facing taxonomic revision

“…Our linear models also suggested that food provided by urban park visitors is an important factor promoting the establishment of alien populations of Siberian chipmunks, as observed for other naturalized invasive species (e.g. Le Louarn et al ., ; Wauters & Martinoli, ). Considering the experiences from France, where the chipmunk is considered to be responsible for an increased spread of the Lyme disease (Vourc'h et al ., ), food‐provisioning by humans in urban parks should be avoided to limit population growth.…”

Beyond Assuming Co-Benefits in Nature-Based Solutions: A Human-Centered Approach to Optimize Social and Ecological Outcomes for Advancing Sustainable Urban Planning

“…SDMs have also been useful at more local scales to demonstrate that dynamic land use changes in business areas (turnover from brownfield to developed sites and vice versa) has resulted in an increase in biodiversity [76,77] or to demonstrate environmental injustice in a local area, with residents of low to mid income tracts being further away from open spaces and thus exposed to less biodiversity and tree canopy [78]. SDMs helped to predict the habitat shifts of two range-expanding native and non-native species [79] and to produce risk maps for two mosquito species that serve as vectors for dengue fever and West Nile Virus [80]. NbS in cities can provide potential habitats acting as inter-population connectivity corridors, and SDMs can be used to derive fine-scale potential connectivity models which allow the identification of connected and completely isolated populations within a study area to detect small linear structures that are important for the inter-population connectivity of specific species [81].…”