Dynamic spatio-temporal patterns of metapopulation occupancy in patchy habitats

Abstract

Spatio-temporal dynamics in habitat suitability and connectivity among mosaics of heterogeneous wetlands are critical for biological diversity and species persistence in aquatic patchy landscapes. Despite the recognized importance of stochastic hydroclimatic forcing in driving wetlandscape hydrological dynamics, linking such effects to emergent dynamics of metapopulation poses significant challenges. To fill this gap, we propose here a dynamic stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM), which links parsimonious hydrological and ecological models to simulate spatio-temporal patterns in species occupancy in wetlandscapes. Our work aims to place ecological studies of patchy habitats into a proper hydrologic and climatic framework to improve the knowledge about metapopulation shifts in response to climate-driven changes in wetlandscapes. We applied the dynamic version of the SPOM (D-SPOM) framework in two wetlandscapes in the US with contrasting landscape and climate properties. Our results illustrate that explicit consideration of the temporal dimension proposed in the D-SPOM is important to interpret local- and landscape-scale patterns of habitat suitability and metapopulation occupancy. Our analyses show that spatio-temporal dynamics of patch suitability and accessibility, driven by the stochasticity in hydroclimatic forcing, influence metapopulation occupancy and the topological metrics of the emergent wetlandscape dispersal network. D-SPOM simulations also reveal that the extinction risk in dynamic wetlandscapes is exacerbated by extended dry periods when suitable habitat decreases, hence limiting successful patch colonization and exacerbating metapopulation extinction risks. The proposed framework is not restricted only to wetland studies but could also be applied to examine metapopulation dynamics in other types of patchy habitats subjected to stochastic external disturbances.

A Note on the Role of Seasonal Expansions and Contractions of the Flowing Fluvial Network on Metapopulation Persistence

“…Transient waterscape connectivity has long been the subject of ecological investigation for example (Bertassello, Aubenau, et al., 2020; Bertassello, Bertuzzo, et al., 2020; Bertassello et al., 2019; De Angelis et al., 2005; Dixon, 2003; Lowe et al., 2019; Stoffels et al., 2016; Trexler et al., 2005; Unmack, 2001; Zeigler & Fagan, 2014; Zhou & Fagan, 2017). Specifically, hydrologically driven changes in size, shape, and location of habitat patches, for example, induced by water level rises related to hydrologic responses to the vagaries of precipitation regimes, may generate ecological opportunities owing to transient windows for connectivity, periodic, or altogether changing (Bertassello et al., 2019; Zeigler & Fagan, 2014).…”

Ecohydrology 2.0

“… 2019 ; Bertassello et al. 2020a , b , 2022 ). Changes in size, shape and connection of habitat patches induced by water level rises may generate ecological opportunities due to transient windows for connectivity, periodic or erratic (Lodge 2004 ; Zeigler and Fagan 2014 ; Bertassello et al.…”

Species Abundance Distributions Patterns between Tiankeng Forests and Nearby Non-Tiankeng Forests in Southwest China

“…Fragmented habitats in Dashiwei Tiankeng Group increase the probability of random extinction of vulnerable species in Tiankeng forests. However, the species dispersal between habitat patches can also rebuild a new population in those unoccupied spaces [44]. Therefore, we should protect the nearby non-Tiankeng forests for maintenance of the ecosystem in Tiankeng forests.…”