Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300

Schmidt, Louise Steffensen; Ađalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Pálsson, Finnur; Langen, Peter L.; Guðmundsson, Snævarr; Björnsson, Helgi

doi:10.1017/jog.2019.90

Cited by 21 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Before the glaciological year 1980/81, the observations do not allow the estimation of annual or decadal variability. The glaciological observations started on Hofsjökull in 1987/88 and annual variabilty in the period 1980/81 to 1987/88 is obtained from simulations from the HIRHAM5 snowpack model (Schmidt et al, 2019, see the Section 2). The annual variability is large: for the Vatnajökull record, the standard deviation of the observations is 0.75 m w.e.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With more detailed information about the past mass changes of Icelandic glaciers, models for projecting their future evolution can be improved. The mass loss from glaciers in Iceland has been projected to continue in the coming decades (Flowers et al, 2005;Marshall et al, 2005;Aðalgeirsdóttir et al, 2006;Guðmundsson et al, 2009;Aðalgeirsdóttir et al, 2011;Schmidt et al, 2019). Mass-balance models have been coupled with ice-flow models, and scenarios for future climate have been applied to simulate past and future mass changes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The larger ice cap Vatnajökull will survive longer; it is projected to lose 20-30% of its mass until the end of the century. Its future after that will depend on how much warming will be realized (Schmidt et al, 2019). These studies are based on mass-balance models that do not take non-surface mass balance into account and they therefore have a tendency to underestimate the future glacier decline.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The data records are shown in Figures 2 and 3A,B,C. (2) Simulation of the surface mass balance of Vatnajökull for the years 1980/81 to 1991/92 from the HIRHAM5 snowpack model that uses MODIS albedo (Schmidt et al, 2017) and is forced with a ERA-Interim downscaling using the HARMONIE-AROME model at 2.5 km resolution (Schmidt et al, 2019) (see shaded area in Figure 3A). Data from automatic weather stations and glaciological surface mass balance, and runoff measurements were used to constrain the model (Schmidt et al, 2018).…”

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

et al. 2020

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The volume of glaciers in Iceland (∼3,400 km3 in 2019) corresponds to about 9 mm of potential global sea level rise. In this study, observations from 98.7% of glacier covered areas in Iceland (in 2019) are used to construct a record of mass change of Icelandic glaciers since the end of the 19th century i.e. the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in Iceland. Glaciological (in situ) mass-balance measurements have been conducted on Vatnajökull, Langjökull, and Hofsjökull since the glaciological years 1991/92, 1996/97, and 1987/88, respectively. Geodetic mass balance for multiple glaciers and many periods has been estimated from reconstructed surface maps, published maps, aerial photographs, declassified spy satellite images, modern satellite stereo imagery, and airborne lidar. To estimate the maximum glacier volume at the end of the LIA, a volume–area scaling method is used based on the observed area and volume from the three largest ice caps (over 90% of total ice mass) at 5–7 different times each, in total 19 points. The combined record shows a total mass change of −540 ± 130 Gt (−4.2 ± 1.0 Gt a−1 on average) during the study period (1890/91 to 2018/19). This mass loss corresponds to 1.50 ± 0.36 mm sea level equivalent or 16 ± 4% of mass stored in Icelandic glaciers around 1890. Almost half of the total mass change occurred in 1994/95 to 2018/19, or −240 ± 20 Gt (−9.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 on average), with most rapid loss in 1994/95 to 2009/10 (mass change rate −11.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1). During the relatively warm period 1930/31–1949/50, mass loss rates were probably close to those observed since 1994, and in the colder period 1980/81–1993/94, the glaciers gained mass at a rate of 1.5 ± 1.0 Gt a−1. For other periods of this study, the glaciers were either close to equilibrium or experienced mild loss rates. For the periods of AR6 IPCC, the mass change rates are −3.1 ± 1.1 Gt a−1 for 1900/01–1989/90, −4.3 ± 1.0 Gt a−1 for 1970/71–2017/18, −8.3 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 for 1992/93–2017/18, and −7.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 for 2005/06–2017/18.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

et al. 2020

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“…Not only has the input from RES techniques thus been significant for investigations of glacier–volcano interaction, but the resulting bed and glacier surface maps have benefited studies of meltwater drainage underneath the glaciers. This has provided a basis for delineating entire drainage basins and generating theoretical models of glacier hydrology and dynamics, glacier responses to shifts in climate and mass balance (Flowers and others, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008; Marshall and others, 2005; Aðalgeirsdóttir and others, 2006, 2011; Guðmundsson, 2009; Schmidt and others, 2019). The decade-long surveys have also yielded essential data for glacier inventories and ice volume estimates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radio-echo soundings on Icelandic temperate glaciers: history of techniques and findings

Björnsson

Pálsson

2020

Ann. Glaciol.

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Since the mid-1970s radio-echo soundings have been conducted on Iceland's temperate glaciers. Since then, low-frequency radar technology has furthered the study of most of the island's ice caps. Their masses and volumes have been quantified and detailed subglacial topographic maps produced which demarcate glacial drainage basins and identify subglacial lakes and volcanoes. Even internal tephra layers have been charted. The resulting data have been used to force and validate models of past and future glacier evolution. Many practical applications in glacier hydrology have come into being, including hydropower management, road and bridge planning and the prediction of catastrophic flood paths from subglacial eruption sites. Finally, emerging landscapes can now be foreseen in places where glaciers may soon disappear. These achievements would not have been possible without the advances in RES technology.

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A 2012–2021 high‐resolution glacier mass balance estimate for Icelandic ice caps based on ArcticDEM and ICESat‐2

Luo,

Ke,

Fan

2024

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Ice caps are important water resources for Iceland and are threatened by climate change. Despite their importance and vulnerability, the geodetic glacier mass balance estimate for the recent decade lacks a high‐resolution result. To address this gap, we first co‐registered the 2012–2021 ArcticDEM (v4) strips with ICESat‐2 points acquired over off‐ice areas and evaluated the accuracy of the co‐registered DEMs. We then applied a per‐pixel weighted liner regression to the multi‐temporal ArcticDEM strips and generated a high‐resolution (2 m) glacier surface elevation change rate for six major Icelandic ice caps. Based on these estimates we calculated the geodetic mass balance. Additionally, we estimated the seasonal relative surface elevation changes using ICESat‐2 ATL06 data for the 2019 to 2021 period. The results showed the co‐registered ArcticDEM strips exhibit good accuracy, with a standard deviation of 1.15 m across the Icelandic ice cap regions. Between 2012 and 2021, Icelandic ice caps experienced a state of mass loss, with a surface elevation change rate of −0.57 ± 0.21 m/a, corresponding to a mass loss of −0.51 ± 0.02 m w.e/a. Spatial variability in glacier surface elevation changes among different Icelandic ice caps ranges −0.19 m/a to −0.75 m/a. The Langjökull ice cap exhibited the most severe glacier mass loss at −0.68 ± 0.006 m w.e/a. Furthermore, our observations indicate a change in seasonal trends occurred across all six ice caps from 2019 to 2021. Specifically, the glacier surface thickening decreased during the accumulation period, while the thinning rate increased during the ablation period. These findings highlight that ArcticDEM v4 strips provide new insights into the mass balance of Icelandic glaciers and will aid in making future water management decisions. Moreover, the high‐resolution surface elevation topography and change rates provided in this study may contribute to an improved understanding of the influence of glacier dynamics on glacier change.

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Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300

Cited by 21 publications

References 63 publications

Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

Radio-echo soundings on Icelandic temperate glaciers: history of techniques and findings

A 2012–2021 high‐resolution glacier mass balance estimate for Icelandic ice caps based on ArcticDEM and ICESat‐2

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