Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

Abstract

Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the infl uence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profi t, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profi t is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a signifi cant motivational role.

Simulation Cognitive Modeling Approach to the Regional Sustainable Complex System Development for Improving Quality of Life

“…Control actions (situation management) are being developed at the stage of developing possible scenarios for the development of the system under the influence of changes in internal and external factors [28][29][30]. To determine the processes of the development of situations in the model, the impulse process model is used [31,32]. Let us present it in the Formula (11):…”