Dynamic simulation of debris flow waste‐shoal land use based on an integrated system dynamics–geographic information systems model

Abstract

Given the increased conflict between human development and land use in fragile mountainous areas, debris flow waste-shoal land (DFWSL) use has shown beneficial effects and drawn public concern in recent years. However, temporal-spatial future change trends of DFWSL are not yet clear, meanwhile widely applied singular methods, including the system dynamics (SD) model and geographic information systems (GIS), are unsatisfactory. To better assess the sustainability and challenges of DFWSL use and provide reference for future development, we propose a hybrid SD-GIS model for characterizing complex relationships and performing dynamic simulations and spatial spreading. A causality flowchart was plotted and response equation defining the changes was established to predict macro land-use demands in the SD model component. Additionally, the spatial distribution of land-use types was determined using the GIS model component. The Awang DFWSL system in the Yunnan Province, China was analyzed using the coupled method. The results revealed a steadily declining trend in cultivated land and water areas accompanied by a substantial increase in construction land. Future projections indicate that from 2018 to 2025, the total area of cultivated land will decrease by nearly half compared with that in 2018 and decrease to one-quarter of the level in 2018 by 2030. These predictions consider the reciprocal influences of social, economic, and ecological indicators, and risk factors, such as debris flow scale and frequency. This study provides a new approach for estimating future trends of DFWSL use and increases the awareness of the spatiotemporal changes encountered when using marginal land. K E Y W O R D S debris flow waste-shoal land, dynamic land-use simulation, ecologically fragile area, SD-GIS model, spatiotemporal changes 1 | INTRODUCTION Despite global climate change, population growth, and accelerated urbanization, debris flow waste-shoal land (DFWSL) has been utilized in low-and medium-risk mountainous areas to harmonize mountain region development with environmental regulations. It is an important initiative for sustainable mountain development (He et al., 2018, 2019). DFWSL provides adequate space for industrialization and urbanization while simultaneously furnishing a buffer space for ecological conservation. It could help solve the problem of cultivated land

Multi‐scenario simulation of land use change based on MCR‐SD‐FLUS model: A case study of Nanchang, China

“…Previous land use simulations have mostly focused on quantitative structural or spatial pattern simulations. The quantitative structural modeling has less comprehensively taken into account the complex interaction effects between multiple factors involved in land use change, especially the driving role of socio‐economic development in the current rapid urbanization process (He et al, 2022). Spatial layout modeling is less likely to highlight the competing relationships between land types in the process of land use change (Wang & Marceau, 2013).…”

Geographic information spatial feature extraction based on drone aerial surveying and mapping technology

“…Due to the wide range of images captured by drones, the resulting images are blurry, with redundant information and data errors, which have a certain impact on the subsequent extraction of geographic information spatial features. Therefore, before extracting geographic information spatial features, adjusting the focus mode of drones can make the obtained geographic information space have a higher proportion in the overall image, Further correct the collected geographic information spatial images [6] .…”

Global sustainable land use and management: Illustrating the linkage between carbon sink and ecological engineering

“…Meanwhile, analysis methods included multiple innovation model combinations as well as meta‐analysis. SD: system dynamics, GIS: geographic information systems, RF Model: random forest model, DNDC Model: denitrification‐decomposition (DNDC) model (Bhardwaj et al, 2022; Chen et al, 2022; Feng et al, 2023, Hashimi et al, 2022; He et al, 2022; Jia et al, 2023; Liu et al, 2022; Ravisankar et al, 2022; Wang et al, 2022, 2023; Xu et al, 2022; Yang et al, 2022, Zhang et al, 2022, 2023). [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]…”

“…It is worth mentioning that this SI includes some new methods used to explore the dynamic mechanisms of carbon sinks. He et al (2022) created an integrated system dynamics‐geographic information systems model to simulate debris flow of waste‐shoal land use change, which provides reference for future land use strategy evaluation and development. Moreover, based on multiple prediction models with machine learning methods, soil organic carbon spatial patterns in coastal wetlands were predicted (Xu et al, 2022).…”

“…Currently, grasslands are severely degrading due to climate fluctuations and F I G U R E 1 Research regions of the Special Issue (SI). The research regions of this SI ranged from basin scale to continental scale, and included forest, grassland, saline-alkali land, desert land, and other fragile ecosystem types(Bhardwaj et al, 2022;Chen et al, 2022;Feng et al, 2023;Hashimi et al, 2022;He et al, 2022;Jia et al, 2023;Liu et al, 2022;Ravisankar et al, 2022;Wang et al, 2022. Xu et al, 2022Yang et al, 2022;Zhang et al, 2022Zhang et al, , 2023.…”