Dynamic Scoring, Fiscal Policy, and the Short-Run Behavior of the Macroeconomy

Mauskopf, Eileen; Reifschneider, Dave

doi:10.1086/ntj41789286

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Como ensinam Mauskopf e Reifschneider (1997), o crescimento econômico, no longo prazo, depende dos avanços tecnológicos, da oferta de trabalho e da produtividade dos fatores da economia. Adicionalmente, uma conclusão central do estudo da tributação é que "impostos afetam o comportamento e distorcem escolhas de empresas, trabalhadores e investidores" (U.S. A., 2004, p. 117).…”

Section: Caderno De Finanças Públicas Brasília V 20 N 3 P 1-38 Jan 20...unclassified

“…Em defesa da adoção de estimativas dinâmicas, Mauskopf e Reifschneider (1997) argumentam que estimativas de impacto devem, idealmente, ter como base as melhores projeções acerca das condições macroeconômicas; se mudanças na política fiscal têm efeitos previsíveis e mensuráveis sobre preços, produto e renda, estes efeitos precisam ser considerados pelos envolvidos no desenho da política. D'Amico e Lash ecoam o ponto (2015, p. 24-25):…”

Section: Metodologia De Cálculo: Em Favor De Estimativas Dinâmicasunclassified

“…Preliminarmente, é útil recorrer ao auxílio de Gravelle (2014), que apresenta quatro categorias de modelos econômicos passíveis de uso na tarefa de elaboração de estimativas dinâmicas de impacto fiscal:…”

Section: Estimativas Dinâmicas: Minúcias E Desafiosunclassified

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Tax Changes, Budgetary Effect, and Economic Growth

Almeida¹

2021

CFP

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Fiscal policy decisions – in particular, those related to tax policy – have real impact on private sector activity. A central result from studies on taxation is that taxes affect behaviour and result in distortions on the choices of companies, workers and investors; thus, a country's tax system - and, therefore, variations in that system - reflects on the nation's economic growth. In Brazil, changes in tax legislation bringing about revenue losses at federal level must obey the fiscal neutrality rule, assuring compensation equivalent to the estimated decrease in revenue. Consequently, it becomes mandatory measure the corresponding revenue loss, so that the task of scorekeeping gains special contours in the fiscal control framework which aims to promote the balance of public accounts. This paper demonstrates that the static technique of estimating budgetary effects, coupled to the legal design that requires prompt compensation of the effects on revenue, discourages the production of tax rules seeking to promote efficiency and economic growth. The result was reached using a general equilibrium model stylized and calibrated for the Brazilian economy, by simulating permanent shocks on the average tax rates on consumption, labour, and capital income. Comparing the different methodologies, we concluded that the static scoring overestimate revenue losses in face of tax cuts, in parallel to results produced from dynamic estimations. The latter, in turn, allow to capture and differentiate – according to the tax base – the positive effects stemming from cuts in the tax burden on capital stock, labour supply, consumption and aggregate investment, ultimately identifying higher long-term economic growth. Dynamic scoring offers clarity about the extra-fiscal consequences on the economy that may yield from changes in the tax system, and provides a more accurate measurement of the normative change's budgetary effect, qualifying the debate and the political decisions in the country. Keywords: Taxation. Growth. Budgetary effect. Dynamic scoring.

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Section: Caderno De Finanças Públicas Brasília V 20 N 3 P 1-38 Jan 20...unclassified

Section: Metodologia De Cálculo: Em Favor De Estimativas Dinâmicasunclassified

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Tax Changes, Budgetary Effect, and Economic Growth

Almeida¹

2021

CFP

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“…For example, Laubach (2003) notes that the estimates above would be consistent with an increase of interest rates of approximately 15 basis points following a permanent one percentage point increase in the deficit-to-GDP ratio. Moreover, while the CEA's analysis suggests a 5 For a brief description of some of these models in the context of a dynamic scoring analysis of fiscal policy measures (including two large-scale structural models of the U.S. economy used by the Federal Reserve), see Mauskopf and Reifschneider (1997). 6 Among the studies that find no statistically significant relationship between fiscal deficits and interest rate are the ones by Plosser (1987) and Evans (1987), which proxied expected fiscal deficits using forecasts from vector autoregressive models (VAR).…”

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confidence: 99%

United States: Selected Issues

Fund¹

2003

IMF Staff Country Reports

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This Selected Issues paper for United States was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country.It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 15, 2003. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of United States or the Executive Board of the IMF.The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents by the IMF allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information.To assist the IMF in evaluating the publication policy, reader comments are invited and may be sent by e-mail to

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Observed Relationships between Economic and Technical Receipts Revisions in Federal Budget Projections

Kitchen¹

2003

National Tax Journal

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This paper presents results illustrating a close relationship between economic and technical errors in receipts projections made by the OMB and the CBO. The specific source appears to be the relationship between economic and technical errors for personal income tax receipts. Receipts projections generally are efficient in the use of prior information, although some evidence exists to suggest that OMB economic receipts revisions are related to prior economic information. The results indicate a greater sensitivity of changes in receipts projections to changes in the performance of the economy than typically realized.

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Dynamic Scoring, Fiscal Policy, and the Short-Run Behavior of the Macroeconomy

Cited by 3 publications

References 5 publications

Tax Changes, Budgetary Effect, and Economic Growth

Tax Changes, Budgetary Effect, and Economic Growth

United States: Selected Issues

Observed Relationships between Economic and Technical Receipts Revisions in Federal Budget Projections

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