Dynamic safety risk analysis of offshore drilling

Integrated risk management: a Petrobras application in offshore well construction safety to minimize critical emergency disconnections

“…In the literature, important works are found on the construction of offshore wells, using risk analysis techniques, such as Bayesian network, fault tree, event tree and bow tie (Bhandari et al 2015;Khakzad et al 2013;Abimbola et al 2014). Such studies help to determine the probability of blowouts, facilitating the preventive and mitigating actions for undesired events.…”

“…Also described in the literature is the impact on the operation risk by the introduction of new drilling techniques, such as MPD (managed pressure drilling) and UBD (underbalanced drilling) (Abimbola et al 2015). Although there were interesting assessments on the probabilities of failure of several basic events in offshore well construction operations (Abimbola et al 2014;OREDA 2002), no studies were found in the literature that included the selection of the closure sequence (EDS) of the BOP stack rams, in emergency disconnect events, in case of BOP closing failure. Incorrect selection of the closing sequence can lead and Fonseca (2013) to the events of blind rams, which do not have the cutting and well sealing capacity acting on pipes, severely increasing the probability of failure of the blind ram.…”

Multivariate probabilistic safety analysis of process facilities using the Copula Bayesian Network model

“…Considering a salt water formation fluid for this case study, E(P P ) can also be expressed as a function of h as E(P P ) = 0.465h [37]. Assuming that the failure of the drilling equipment causes the underbalanced conditions, Equation (7) is used in this work to estimate the real-time probability of the underbalanced conditions (p IE ) as a function of h. Then, the proposed inference analysis methodology in Equation (5) …”

QRA of accidental events initiated by leaks causing a fire in process industries

“…In [1], risk analysis of offshore drilling by using Bow-tie analysis and real time barriers failure probability assessment of offshore drilling operation is shown. The need for better failure analysis of operational barriers in the offshore industry resulted in Barrier and Operational Risk Analysis (BORA) project [16] with methodology of BORA presented in [2].…”