Dynamic Risk Scales Degrade Over Time: Evidence for Reassessments

Abstract

Risk tools containing dynamic (potentially changeable) factors are routinely used to evaluate the recidivism risk of justice-involved individuals. Although frequent reassessments are recommended, there is little research on how the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessments changes over time. This study examined the extent to which predictive accuracy decreases over time for the ACUTE-2007 and the STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools. We used two independent samples of men on community supervision ( NStudy 1 = 795; NStudy 2 = 4,221). For all outcomes (sexual, violent, and any recidivism [including technical violations]), reassessments improved predictive accuracy, with the largest effects found for the most recent assessment (i.e., those closest in time prior to the recidivism event). Based on these results, we recommend that ACUTE-2007 assessments occur at least every 30 days and that the STABLE-2007 assessments occur every 6 months or after significant life changes (e.g., successful completion of treatment).

ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 predict recidivism for men adjudicated for child sexual exploitation material offending.

“…The ACUTE-2007 predicts sexual, violent, and any recidivism and adds discriminative ability above that of static risk tools (Hanson et al, 2007; Nitsche et al, 2022). Change in ACUTE-2007 total scores are associated with changes in the likelihood of sexual, violent, and general recidivism (Babchishin & Hanson, 2020; Lee et al, 2023). There are no expected recidivism norms for ACUTE-2007 scores; instead, the individual items are intended to guide treatment and supervision efforts and to identify periods of increased or decreased risk.…”

“…Interrater reliability was not available in this study for STABLE-2007 scores because they were retrieved from administrative data, but the STABLE-2007 has good interrater reliability in field settings (ICC = .86; Fernandez & Helmus, 2017) and moderate discrimination for sexual recidivism in a meta-analysis based on 21 studies (AUC = .67, 95% CI [.65, .70], N = 6,845; Brankley et al, 2021). Change in STABLE-2007 scores tracks changes in the likelihood of recidivism (Lee et al, 2023). STABLE-2007 total scores were calculated only for individuals who had no missing items, including the emotional identification with children item (required for those with a child victim).…”

What Risk Assessment Tools can be Used With Men Convicted of Child Sexual Exploitation Material (CSEM) Offenses? Recommendations From a Review of Current Research

“…Secondly, more than a decade of research on international and cultural generalizability has accrued since Helmus et al (2011), much of it conducted or meta-analyzed by Helmus and colleagues Helmus et al, 2022Helmus et al, , 2023Lee et al, 2023;Olver et al, in press). Simply put, the 2011 quote selected and relied on by Scurich and Krauss (2023) is outdated.…”

“…Total scores of 0-3, 4-11, and 12+ reflect low, moderate, and high levels of dynamic need. Changes in STABLE-2007 scores predict sexual recidivism, with the most recent assessment generally being most informative (Lee et al, 2023). The STABLE-2007 is a widely used measure for dynamic risk (Kelley et al, 2020).…”

“…The STABLE-2007 includes a fairly comprehensive selection of psychologically meaningful dynamic risk factors for sexual recidivism (Brankley et al, 2021;Brouillette-Alarie & Hanson, 2015;Mann et al, 2010) and is surprisingly robust to missing information (Perley-Robertson et al, in press). It can inform treatment recommendations and can assess changes in risk, with the most recent assessment providing the most accurate results (Babchishin & Hanson, 2020;Lee et al, 2023). However, no studies have yet examined changes in risk over time among men convicted of CSEM offenses.…”