Abstract:One of the great challenges in reservoir modeling is to understand and quantify the dynamic uncertainties in geocellular models. Uncertainties in static parameters are easy to identify in geocellular models. Unfortunately, those models contain at least one to two orders of magnitude more gridblocks than typical simulation models. This means that, without significant upscaling, the dynamic uncertainties in these models cannot easily be assessed. Further, if we would like to select only a few geological models t… Show more
“…The efficiency of any ranking method however depends on the reliability of the method in selecting realizations that closely predict the real reservoir system (Begg and Welsh, 2014), or at least predict the low, mid and high (P10, P50 and P90) reserves quartiles as accurately as possible. Several approaches have been applied in the selection of models from a set of multiple realizations (Deutsch and Srinivasan, 1996;Scheidt and Caers, 2010;Shirangi and Durlofsky, 2016;Sahni and Horne, 2004;Mtchedlishvili, Voigt and Haefner, 2004;Fei, Yarus and Chambers, 2016;Dehdari and Deutsch (2012) and Sharifi et al, 2014). Model selection by ranking is generally based on the distribution and response of the quantity of interest.…”
Section: 1mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…On the other hand, the static ranking measures have been applied by ; Li and Deutsch, 2008;Fenwick and Batycky, 2011;Li, Deutsch and Si, 2012;Sharifi et al, 2014. Although the dynamic ranking measures are simplified, they could undermine the geological complexity of the reservoir. )…”
Section: 1mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…They pointed out that they obtained better results with the modified quality factor, in comparison to ranking based on CHCV. As an improvement to the foregoing, Sharifi et al, (2014) used a fastmarching method (FMM) to quantify the CHCV in a well. Using the correlation between the CHCV and well production, FMM is able to capture the dynamic connectivity of the reservoir.…”
The selection of an optimal model from a set of multiple realizations for dynamic reservoir modelling and production forecasts has been a persistent issue for reservoir modelers and decision makers. Current evidence has shown that many presumably good reservoir models which originally matched the true historic data did not always perform well in predicting the future of the reservoir as a result of uncertainties.
“…The efficiency of any ranking method however depends on the reliability of the method in selecting realizations that closely predict the real reservoir system (Begg and Welsh, 2014), or at least predict the low, mid and high (P10, P50 and P90) reserves quartiles as accurately as possible. Several approaches have been applied in the selection of models from a set of multiple realizations (Deutsch and Srinivasan, 1996;Scheidt and Caers, 2010;Shirangi and Durlofsky, 2016;Sahni and Horne, 2004;Mtchedlishvili, Voigt and Haefner, 2004;Fei, Yarus and Chambers, 2016;Dehdari and Deutsch (2012) and Sharifi et al, 2014). Model selection by ranking is generally based on the distribution and response of the quantity of interest.…”
Section: 1mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…On the other hand, the static ranking measures have been applied by ; Li and Deutsch, 2008;Fenwick and Batycky, 2011;Li, Deutsch and Si, 2012;Sharifi et al, 2014. Although the dynamic ranking measures are simplified, they could undermine the geological complexity of the reservoir. )…”
Section: 1mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…They pointed out that they obtained better results with the modified quality factor, in comparison to ranking based on CHCV. As an improvement to the foregoing, Sharifi et al, (2014) used a fastmarching method (FMM) to quantify the CHCV in a well. Using the correlation between the CHCV and well production, FMM is able to capture the dynamic connectivity of the reservoir.…”
The selection of an optimal model from a set of multiple realizations for dynamic reservoir modelling and production forecasts has been a persistent issue for reservoir modelers and decision makers. Current evidence has shown that many presumably good reservoir models which originally matched the true historic data did not always perform well in predicting the future of the reservoir as a result of uncertainties.
“…Second, a pressure equation must be solved at least once to calculate the streamlines using the potential field (Sharifi et al, 2014). Even a one-time calculation demands high computational cost in a geological model with millions of cells.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Sethian (1996) introduced the fast-marching method (FMM) to quickly compute the position of monotonically advancing fronts. FMM has been recently applied to approximate reservoir drainage volume (Sharifi et al, 2014;Xie et al, 2015). FMM is a computationally efficient method to approximate fluid movements in heterogeneous porous media.…”
During the operation of a geological carbon storage project, it is crucial to estimate the uncertainty in the flow characteristics of injected CO 2. However, because a large suite of geological models are probable given sparse static data, it is impractical to conduct full physics flow simulations in the entire suite in order to quantify the uncertainty in CO 2 plume migrations. We propose a fast connectivity based proxy that approximates a CO 2 plume migration in a 3-dimensional heterogeneous reservoir during an injection period where viscous forces are dominant over capillary forces. The geological models are ranked based on the extent of the approximated CO 2 plumes. By selecting a representative group of models among the ranked models, the uncertainty in the spatial and temporal characteristics of the CO 2 plume migrations can be quickly quantified. We saved about 90% of the computational cost of quantifying the uncertainty in the extent of CO 2 plumes using the connectivity based proxy.
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