Dynamic Poisson Autoregression for Influenza-Like-Illness Case Count Prediction

Abstract

Influenza-like-illness (ILI) is among of the most common diseases worldwide, and reliable forecasting of the same can have significant public health benefits. Recently, new forms of disease surveillance based upon digital data sources have been proposed and are continuing to attract attention over traditional surveillance methods. In this paper, we focus on short-term ILI case count prediction and develop a dynamic Poisson autoregressive model with exogenous inputs variables (DPARX) for flu forecasting. In this model, we allow the autoregressive model to change over time. In order to control the variation in the model, we construct a model similarity graph to specify the relationship between pairs of models at two time points and embed prior knowledge in terms of the structure of the graph. We formulate ILI case count forecasting as a convex optimization problem, whose objective balances the autoregressive loss and the model similarity regularization induced by the structure of the similarity graph. We then propose an efficient algorithm to solve this problem by block coordinate descent. We apply our model and the corresponding learning method on historical ILI records for 15 countries around the world using a variety of syndromic surveillance data sources. Our approach provides consistently better forecasting results than state-ofthe-art models available for short-term ILI case count forecasting.

Визначення Оптимального Часу Проведення Спеціального Аудиту За Умови Еластичності Та Чутливості Функції Інтенсивності Кібератак

“…Процесу прогнозування часових рядів присвячені наукові праці [4,5,6,7]. При цьому, застовуються методи, засновані на авторегресивних моделях, що використовують зовнішні часові ряди в задачі прогнозування [6,8]. Аналіз авторегресивних моделей перед застосуванням полягає у перегляді спостережень за часовими рядами, особливо за їх властивостями стаціонарності та періодичності.…”

“…Ілюс-трація прогнозування кібератак представлена на рис. 1 [8]. Тут припускається, що основні дані емпіричних кібератак, подаються для налагоджування моделей прогнозування разом із зовнішніми сигналами.…”

Measuring Global Disease with Wikipedia

“…These traces of disease observations are embedded in search queries [5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 17, 21, 25, 26, 31, 32, 33, 39, 49, 50, 53, 59, 63, 64, 71, 72 73, 77, 78, 81, 85, 87, 90, 97, 103, 104, 109, 119, 126, 127, 131, 132, 141, 142, 144, 146, 157, 158, 162, 163, 166, 168, 169, 170, 173, 177, 179, 180, 182], social media messages [1, 2, 8, 10, 20, 36, 40, 41, 42, 46, 51, 60, 62, 68, 76, 84, 89, 92, 93, 115, 116, 118, 123, 124, 148, 149, 151, 176], web server access logs [57, 79, 101, 105], and combinations thereof [13, 19, 30, 91, 136, 143, 167]. …”

“…The linear methods we found are linear autoregressive models [115, 124], stacked linear regression [143], multiple linear regression with a network component [43], and a dynamic Poisson autoregressive model [163]. We also found non-linear methods: matrix factorization and nearest neighbor models [30], support vector machines [143], AdaBoost with decision trees [143], neural networks [32], and matching meteorological data to historic outbreaks [21,151].…”

“…Five of these studies used cross-validation [21, 32, 43, 48, 124], while six had one training and one test set [9, 30, 115, 143, 151, 163]. One did not specify the nature of validation [12].…”