Dynamic Modeling for Resilience Measurement: NATO Resilience Decision Support Model

Abstract

Despite its conceptual uncertainty, resilience is mostly about the measurement of capacity. Current studies confirm the importance of resilience measurement and the necessity to support policy makers with a measurement mechanism. A holistic approach considering the measurement of different resilience domains interactively and concurrently is the critical element in this endeavor. In parallel with the rise of popularity of resilience in international organizations, NATO has initiated a project with the objective to discover whether the resilience capacity of a country can be evaluated in a dynamic way via a prototype model execution. The implemented model running both baseline (without any shock) and extraordinary scenarios (with strategic shocks), clearly demonstrates its capacity to represent quantitatively the resilience related factors of a country in the complex operational environment. Moreover, the outputs of the model substantially comply with the resilience concept existing in the literature and NATO applications. One of the main strengths of the model is its almost infinite capacity to create various scenarios and make what-if analysis limited only by the current number of endogenous parameters of the model. It allows studying the secondary and the third order effects of events introduced in scenarios. The user interfaces (input and output dashboards) of the model help decision makers modify the values of selected endogenous parameters, see and compare the time-based values of the resilience factors, and doing so to evaluate risk related to the Area of Operations. Subject matter experts have validated the model and identified the main areas of improvement. The further development brings more countries to the model and implements an aggregation mechanism for output values of both resilience capacity and risk functions. The model will form the core of the NATO Resilience expert system.

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-Based Aggregation Mechanism for Resilience Measurement: NATO Aggregated Resilience Decision Support Model

“…We have used the system dynamics modelling and simulation paradigm to develop both prototype and aggregated resilience models, as depicted in Figure 1 . The main rationale behind choosing this paradigm is to quantify NATO’s resilience-related capacities by a structure representing dynamic relations among vague resilience parameters over time in scenario-driven NATO operations and experiments [ 2 ]. The system dynamics modelling technique helps us understand and synthesize nonlinear behaviours of complex systems, such as resilience [ 25 , 26 ], by the help of simulation software analysing causal interrelations among the components that make up those systems [ 2 ].…”

“…The main rationale behind choosing this paradigm is to quantify NATO’s resilience-related capacities by a structure representing dynamic relations among vague resilience parameters over time in scenario-driven NATO operations and experiments [ 2 ]. The system dynamics modelling technique helps us understand and synthesize nonlinear behaviours of complex systems, such as resilience [ 25 , 26 ], by the help of simulation software analysing causal interrelations among the components that make up those systems [ 2 ]. In accordance with the system dynamics methodology, we have conducted problem articulation and literature review on concept and measurement techniques of resilience concurrently, identified key resilience variables, made causality and behavioural analysis by building causal loop diagrams, modelled the dynamics of resilience via stock and flow diagrams, and developed user interfaces that consist of input and output dashboards for the prototype and aggregated resilience models.…”

“…With the help of the system dynamics modelling and simulation paradigm, the prototype model is capable of evaluating the resilience capacity of a country and dynamically assessing its resilience-based risk. The outcomes of the model comply with NATO’s strategic resilience concept [ 2 ]. The strategic resilience concept is an adaptive process in which resilience performance is measured by absorbing strategic shocks with minimal impact while maintaining essential functions at an acceptable level, then recovering functionality at a reasonable time and a reasonable cost.…”

“…As an international military organization, NATO is not that different than these other organisations. In this regard, NATO has developed a prototype resilience model that can provide foresight regarding the NATO resilience changes over time [ 2 ]. With the help of the system dynamics modelling and simulation paradigm, the prototype model is capable of evaluating the resilience capacity of a country and dynamically assessing its resilience-based risk.…”

“…Hodicky et al [ 2 ] write about growth potential, such as adding more countries to the model via an appropriate aggregation mechanism and bringing parametrization of strategic shocks (i.e., adding user-specified shock parameters). Accordingly, NATO has developed an aggregated resilience model as an upgrade of the extant prototype by activating the mentioned growth potential.…”