Dynamic Impact Modeling as a Road Transport Crisis Management Support Tool

Abstract

Crisis management must provide data to allow for real-time decision-making. Accurate data is especially needed to minimize the risk of critical infrastructure failure. Research into the possible impacts of critical infrastructure failure is a part of developing a functional and secure infrastructure for each nation state. Road transport is one such sector that has a significant impact on its functions. When this fails, there may be a cascading spread of impacts on the energy, health, and other sectors. In this regard, this paper focuses on the dynamic modeling of the impacts of critical road infrastructure failures. It proposes a dynamic modeling system based on a stochastic approach. Its essence is the macroscopic model-based comparative analysis of a road with a critical element and detour roads. The outputs of this system are planning documents that determine the impacts of functional parameter degradation on detour roads-not only applicable in decision-making concerning the selection of the optimal detour road, but also as a support mechanism in minimising possible risks. In this article we aim to expand the extent of knowledge in the Crisis management and critical infrastructure protection in the road transport sector fields.

Qualitative Approach to Environmental Risk Assessment in Transport

“…Creating an intelligent/SMART and comprehensive environmental risk assessment solution requires a real scientific basis, long-term experience, and a multidimensional perspective solution [ 35 , 49 ]. Previously implemented projects focused on static evaluation, however, the current trend is focused on the dynamic dimension of the solution [ 45 ]. The writers of the article are aware of the need to create a theoretical framework, followed by a methodological procedure and a detailed algorithm of selected scenarios, which will be the basis for the IT solution.…”

“…The project focused on creating a resilience framework for important sectors-energy, transport, and information and communication technologies. Certified methodologies were developed within the project and the results were published in Safety and Security Issues in Technical Infrastructures [34], Dynamic Impact Modeling as a Road Transport Crisis Management Support Tool [45] and in Complex Approach to Assessing Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Elements [46]. The newly developed resilience methodology used a system where resilience consists of adaptability, robustness, and resilience.…”

Identifying Critical Elements of Road Infrastructure Using Cascading Impact Assessment

“…The assessment results can be used to identify critical elements and also to adopt effective security measures aimed at enhancing the resilience of these elements. These results can also be used as input data for modelling, simulation and information systems in crisis management (Ristvej et al 2013) in order to enhance the resilience of dependent elements, for example, when planning detour routes (Rehak et al 2019b).…”

Environmental Impact Modeling for Transportation of Hazardous Liquids

“…This solution will allow the selection of the optimal transport route for predefined areas with regard to possible environmental impacts. Optimization criteria will need to be set according to priorities, e.g., the protection of fauna, flora, or entire biotic communities in a given area [49,50].…”