Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: A Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH

Dixon, Peter; Rimmer, Maureen T.

doi:10.1108/s0573-8555(2001)256

Cited by 114 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Based on the MONASH model described in Dixon and Rimmer (2002), the system of equations that make up UPGEM describes the theory underlying the behaviour of participants in the economy. It contains equations describing (i) industry demands for primary factors and intermediate inputs; (ii) final household, investment, government, and foreign demand for commodities; (iii) pricing in the economy which sets pure profits from all activities to zero; (iv) market clearing equations for various primary factors and commodities; and (v) miscellaneous or definitional items such as GDP, aggregate employment, consumer price index (CPI), and the current account deficit.…”

Section: Theoretical Specification Of Upgemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…That is, the choice of endogenous versus exogenous variables in the model closure must impose appropriate assumptions and behaviour. For the policy simulations conducted in this report, we mainly use standard policy simulation closures, as described in Dixon and Rimmer (2002), with only minor simulation-specific adjustments.…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) is a leading research unit in Melbourne, Australia, that specializes in the development and application of CGE models and accompanying GEMPACK solution software. The theoretical specification of UPGEM is based on the MONASH model developed at CoPS and described inDixon and Rimmer (2002) andDixon et al (2013). The GEMPACK solution software is described inHorridge et al (2013).3 See Appendices B and C for a detailed description of the structure and dimensions of the model database.…”

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confidence: 99%

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The impact on the South African economy of alternative regulatory arrangements in the petroleum sector

Bohlmann¹,

Crompton²

2020

WIDER Working Paper

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This paper adds quantitative analysis to the study by Crompton et al. (2020), in which various alternative regulatory arrangements regarding the petrol price in South Africa were explored. We use a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model for South Africa to conduct our economic impact analysis. Five scenarios are modelled, first individually to correctly calibrate the shocks, and then cumulatively to find the overall economy-wide effects of the proposed reforms. Under the most comprehensive set of reforms to the determination of petrol prices, which seeks to emulate market forces, the South African economy is seeing substantial benefits. GDP is expected to rise by 0.67 per cent and real wages by over 1.1 per cent relative to the baseline. Refineries are assumed to shrug off reforms targeted at removing pure profits earned via the import parity price (Basic Fuel Price) methodology by accepting a slightly lower rate of return, enabling them to meet the expected increase in demand for petrol on the back of the lower consumer prices achieved via the reforms. Whilst job losses at fuel service stations may be expected as a result of reduced revenues and margins, increased activity and job opportunities in the rest of the economy, facilitated through cheaper trade and transport margins, will more than offset those losses.

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Section: Theoretical Specification Of Upgemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact on the South African economy of alternative regulatory arrangements in the petroleum sector

Bohlmann¹,

Crompton²

2020

WIDER Working Paper

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“…The CGE model used here is the Brazilian Recursive Dynamic General Equilibrium Model (BRIDGE), developed from the theoretical structure of ORANI [31] and MONASH [32], including elements of recursive dynamics, that produce sequences of solutions connected by dynamic relationships such as labor market adjustments and physical capital accumulation. Therefore, it is a Johansen-type model whose mathematical structure is formed by a set of linearized equations, and the solutions are given by the growth rates, i.e.…”

Section: The Bridge Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Impacts of the Vale-Cultura (Culture Voucher): A Computable General Equilibrium Model

Souza¹,

Machado²,

Domingues³

2019

TEL

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The aim of this study is to analyze the impacts of the voucher system Vale-Cultura in the Brazilian cultural sector and in the economy in general. The methodology applied is the Brazilian Recursive Dynamic General Equilibrium model (BRIDGE). Our simulations found that GDP growth is driven mainly by the increase in household consumption. There is a positive variation in welfare, assessed by the equivalent and compensating variations in income for beneficiaries of the vouchers. Indirect and production taxes are positively affected because of the various effects on the economy, which partly makes up for the government transfers to companies via tax waiver. Finally, a positive growth is projected at the level of activity of cultural sectors and negative growth in others, showing a reallocation of productive factors.

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“…Positive change in real devaluation for the currency means the value of the Australian dollar in the international market becomes lower. 10 Please refer toDixon and Rimmer (2002) for a detailed explanation of the structural effects caused by the terms of trade. 11 In the CCNS, we assume that, in the long term, national employment is exogenous and remains at the same level as in the baseline scenario, therefore there is no change in employment.…”

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confidence: 99%

China’s Transition to a New Phase of Development

2022

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As the world's largest developing country, China is marching towards ambitious climate goals of achieving peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Given that China is the largest buyer of Australia's iron ore and one of the largest buyers of Australia's coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), such climate efforts could be expected to impact Australia profoundly. This chapter examines how China's transition to carbon neutrality will affect the Australian economy at the national and state levels and by industry. Our simulation shows that although China's imports of Australian fossil fuels will fall significantly, the impact of those changes on the national economy is negligible. However, the mining sector and those states and territories that rely on fossil fuel production will suffer relatively larger effects.

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Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: A Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH

Cited by 114 publications

References 69 publications

The impact on the South African economy of alternative regulatory arrangements in the petroleum sector

The impact on the South African economy of alternative regulatory arrangements in the petroleum sector

Economic Impacts of the Vale-Cultura (Culture Voucher): A Computable General Equilibrium Model

China’s Transition to a New Phase of Development

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