Dynamic Forecasting of Zika Epidemics Using Google Trends

Abstract

We developed a dynamic forecasting model for Zika virus (ZIKV), based on real-time online search data from Google Trends (GTs). It was designed to provide Zika virus disease (ZVD) surveillance and detection for Health Departments, and predictive numbers of infection cases, which would allow them sufficient time to implement interventions. In this study, we found a strong correlation between Zika-related GTs and the cumulative numbers of reported cases (confirmed, suspected and total cases; p<0.001). Then, we used the correlation data from Zika-related online search in GTs and ZIKV epidemics between 12 February and 20 October 2016 to construct an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model (0, 1, 3) for the dynamic estimation of ZIKV outbreaks. The forecasting results indicated that the predicted data by ARIMA model, which used the online search data as the external regressor to enhance the forecasting model and assist the historical epidemic data in improving the quality of the predictions, are quite similar to the actual data during ZIKV epidemic early November 2016. Integer-valued autoregression provides a useful base predictive model for ZVD cases. This is enhanced by the incorporation of GTs data, confirming the prognostic utility of search query based surveillance. This accessible and flexible dynamic forecast model could be used in the monitoring of ZVD to provide advanced warning of future ZIKV outbreaks.

Preliminary Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practice of Students: Zika Virus and Maternal Health

“…In Nigeria in 1954 there were about a dozen reports of human infections. However it wasn't until 2007 that widespread human infection from the Zika virus became more widespread, moving from the small island of Yap to French Polynesia, to the millions infected in South America [1]. As a result there has been an increased public health concern worldwide [2][3][4][5].…”

“…Additionally the two main health risks associated with Zika are Guillain-Barre Syndrome, which affects the nervous system and microcephaly, a birth defect that causes inadequate development or growth of the brain revealed upon birth. Zika symptoms commonly present for one week duration, showing similarities to infections like dengue and chikungunya [1,7,8].…”

“…Despite the health and economic burden of Zika, an online poll reported 77% of the general population in the United States public was "not very worried" about Zika virus. Additionally, epidemiological reports of Zika infection in the United States reported inequalities in low-income regions [1].…”

Zika, Public Health, and Future Professionals: An Assessment of Student Knowledge, Media Utilization and Health Literacy Levels

“…The origin of the Zika Virus (ZIKV) was the result of a flavivirus found in the blood of a rhesus monkey (isolated in 1947), found near the city of Entebbe, Uganda, in the Zika forest [5]. Zika is a virus carried by its vector of the mosquito, Aedes species [6].…”

“…The two main health risks associated with Zika are Guillain-Barre Syndrome, which affects the nervous system, and microcephaly, a birth defect that causes inadequate development or growth of the brain revealed upon birth. Zika symptoms commonly present for a single week duration, showing similarities to infections like dengue and chikungunya [5,7].…”