Dynamic Forecasting of Government Foreign Debt: Case of Indonesia

Rahman, Yozi Aulia; Pujiati, Amin

doi:10.15294/jejak.v14i1.29715

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Schacht even gave suggestions for Indonesia's economic development including; The state must control the fields of banking, mining, electricity, and land, attract private capital to ease the burden on the state, every participation of the state in companies must determine the profits in the form of money and goods, pay attention to private contract rights and help farmers. Rahman (2021) in his research predicts that Indonesia's foreign debt will increase along with the plan to move the capital city to Kalimantan which requires a lot of development costs including toll roads, housing, government buildings, and mass transportation. The level of foreign debt can also increase due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic which has contributed to the Indonesian economy (Rahman, 2021).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rahman (2021) in his research predicts that Indonesia's foreign debt will increase along with the plan to move the capital city to Kalimantan which requires a lot of development costs including toll roads, housing, government buildings, and mass transportation. The level of foreign debt can also increase due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic which has contributed to the Indonesian economy (Rahman, 2021).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Foreign Debt in the Perspective of Tafsir Fii Zilaal Al-Qur'an by Sayyid Qutb

Komarudin

2021

El-Qish: j. of Islamic Economics

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This study aimed to analyze the contemporary interpretation of Sayyid Qutb against usury contained in foreign debt in his book Fii Zhilaal al-Qur'an Surah Al-Baqarah: 275. The method used in this research is the descriptive analysis method combined with the method of hermeneutics and supported by a literature review to find Sayyid Qutb’s thoughts on foreign debt. This study is an attempt to gain a proper understanding of usury-based on a contemporary interpretation of Sayyid Qutb in the book Fii Zhilaal Al-Qur'an especially that including in foreign debt. This study described the analysis of usury in foreign debt base on the interpretation of Sayyid. Findings. The results of this study are understandings of the thoughts of Sayyid Qutb in his book related to the impact of foreign debt which may lead to the theory that foreign debt will have an impact on regulatory intervention, colonization, and even warfare.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Foreign Debt in the Perspective of Tafsir Fii Zilaal Al-Qur'an by Sayyid Qutb

Komarudin

2021

El-Qish: j. of Islamic Economics

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“…Atiqasani et al (2023) menjelaskan bahwa akumulasi utang dan tingkat korupsi secara signifikan meningkatkan rasio utang terhadap GDP. Dengan pendekatan forecasting pada utang pemerintah Indonesia dilakukan oleh Rahman & Pujiati (2021) bahwa kenaikan utang pemerintah Indonesia diperkirakan mencapai 169.6 persen. Peningkatan utang luar negeri yang cukup signifikan menurut Ayunasta et al (2020) mampu merangsang peningkatan konsumsi rumah tangga untuk utang luar negeri pasca krisis 1997, namun pasca krisis keuangan 2008 menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan utang luar negeri tidak berdampak terhadap peningkatan konsumsi rumah tangga di Indonesia.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Analisis Utang Luar Negeri Indonesia: Pendekatan VECM

Agustina,

Kurniawan

2023

jbea

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Abstrak: Utang luar negeri yaitu salah satu instrumen yang penting bagi negara berkembang. Faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap utang luar negeri di Indonesia adalah tingkat ekspor, tingkat impor, tingkat inflasi, dan nilai kurs. Untuk meningkatkan pendapatan nasional pada negara berkembang, banyak negara berkembang yang mengandalkan utang luar negeri sebagai modal pembangunan. Hal inilah yang tentunya akan berdampak jangka panjang terhadap neraca pembayaran negara berkembang. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui hubungan keterikatan antara utang luar negeri Indonesia dengan tingkat ekspor, tingkat impor, tingkat inflasi, dan nilai kurs. Penelitian ini menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) sebagai model estimasi dengan periode penelitian tahun 1984 sampai tahun 2021. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel ekspor, impor, inflasi, dan kurs tidak berhubungan dengan utang luar negeri pada waktu dekat. Dalam jangka panjang, ekspor dan inflasi jelas berhubungan positif dengan utang luar negeri. Variabel ekspor memiliki efek positif pada ULN sebesar 6.43126. Variabel inflasi berpengaruh positif pada ULN sebesar 8.55321. Pada saat yang sama, impor dan kurs terkait negatif dengan ULN pada jangka panjang. Variabel impor berpengaruh negatif terhadap ULN -5.15708. Variabel kurs berpengaruh negatif terhadap ULN yaitu sebesar -6.50289. Variabel ekspor dan inflasi berpengaruh terhadap utang luar negeri dalam jangka pendek, sedangkan variabel impor dan kurs tidak berpengaruh terhadap utang luar negeri dalam jangka pendek. Dan variabel impor dan ekspor mempengaruhi utang luar negeri dalam jangka panjang. Abstract: Foreign debt is an important instrument for developing countries. Factors that influence foreign debt in Indonesia are the level of exports, the level of imports, the level of inflation and the exchange rate. To increase national income in developing countries, many developing countries rely on foreign debt as development capital. This will certainly have a long-term impact on the balance of payments of developing countries. The aim of this research is to determine the relationship between Indonesia's foreign debt and the level of exports, the level of imports, the level of inflation and the exchange rate. This research uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as an estimation model for the research period from 1984 to 2021. The research results show that the variables exports, imports, inflation and exchange rates are not related to foreign debt in the near future. In the long run, exports and inflation are clearly positively related to foreign debt. The export variable has a positive effect on external debt of 6.43126. The inflation variable has a positive effect on external debt of 8.55321. At the same time, imports and exchange rates are negatively related to external debt in the long run. The import variable has a negative effect on external debt -5.15708. The exchange rate variable has a negative effect on external debt, namely -6.50289. The export and inflation variables have an effect on foreign debt in the short term, while the import and exchange rate variables have no effect on foreign debt in the short term. And import and export variables influence foreign debt in the long term.

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“…Было обнаружено, что внешний долг составляет более 70% государственного долга Танзании. Rahman и Pujiati (Rahman, Pujiati, 2021) совместно подготовили исследовательскую работу по прогнозированию государственного внешнего долга Индонезии на пять лет, с 2020 по 2024 год. Исследователи пришли к выводу, что, по прогнозам, сумма государственного внешнего долга с 2020 по 2024 год будет продолжать расти.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Untitled

2024

ESC / ЭиСП

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A peer-reviewed scientific journal that covers issues of analysis and forecast of changes in the economy and social spheres in various countries, regions, and local territories.The main purpose of the journal is to provide the scientific community and practitioners with an opportunity to publish socio-economic research findings, review different viewpoints on the topical issues of economic and social development, and participate in the discussion of these issues. The remit of the journal comprises development strategies of the territories, regional and sectoral economy, social development, budget revenues, streamlining expenditures, innovative economy, and economic theory.

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Dynamic Forecasting of Government Foreign Debt: Case of Indonesia

Cited by 3 publications

References 17 publications

Foreign Debt in the Perspective of Tafsir Fii Zilaal Al-Qur'an by Sayyid Qutb

Foreign Debt in the Perspective of Tafsir Fii Zilaal Al-Qur'an by Sayyid Qutb

Analisis Utang Luar Negeri Indonesia: Pendekatan VECM

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