Dynamic Empirically Based Model for Understanding Future Trends in US Obesity Prevalence in the Context of Social Influences

Abstract

ObjectiveThis study aimed to (1) identify mechanistic model structures that produced quality fit to historic obesity prevalence trends and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of future obesity prevalence to social transmission and nonsocial parameters.MethodsAn age‐ and gender‐structured compartmental model was used to describe transitions between weight status groups. Four model structures with different combinations of social transmission and nonsocial mechanisms were calibrated to match historic time series and assessed for quality of fit. Projections of overall obesity prevalence to 2052 were simulated, and sensitivity analyses were conducted.ResultsThe model structure that included only nonsocial mechanisms indicated that the overall obesity prevalence in the United States has already stabilized and will increase little more; however, it underestimated observed obesity prevalence since 2013. If social transmission mechanisms influence obesity, the model estimated continued increases in obesity prevalence, reaching 48.0% to 55.1% by 2050. Obesity prevalence was most sensitive to changes in the adult social transmission parameters, especially among women.ConclusionsThe model projected that US obesity prevalence in the overall population will likely continue to increase for decades. The findings that obesity prevalence was most sensitive to adult parameters can be used to inform conversations about priorities for public health and health care programs and policies.

Evolution of the prevalence of obesity in the adult population in France, 2013–2016: the Constances study

“…Our results are more comparable to the Esteban study in France, which is based on measured anthropometrics and shows that from 2006 to 2015, obesity prevalence has been relatively stable at around 17% in adults’ men and women. In fact, data from several countries show a decline or stabilization of obesity levels, albeit with a mixed evidence, data from 2015 to 2016 prevalence indicating no evidence of a decline in obesity at any age 15 .…”

“…Although the reason behind such an increase among young individuals and no other remains to be determined, the result of such an increase in Constances could be attributed to peer social transmission and non-social mechanisms. Researchers studying dynamic simulation models to understand how underlying population age structure and different mechanisms influence trends of obesity, have shown that obesity prevalence was most sensitive to adult parameters (such as social interactions, interplay of individual behaviors and norms) 15 . Our results show a somehow lower prevalence of obesity in the four study points compared to the Esteban study which was also based on measured anthropometrics and has found a prevalence of obesity of 17% in adults aged 18–74 years.…”