Dynamic downscaling of the NCEP EPS forecast using the PROMES limited area model

Abstract

When making numerical weather predictions, it is important to forecast not only the future state of the atmosphere, but also to predict the uncertainty related to this forecast. Keeping this in mind, research has started at iMetCam in order to develop a limited area ensemble prediction system. As a start, the simple dynamical downscaling approach was tried. Initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions were provided by the global ensemble system of NCEP and the PROMES limited area model was used for the downscaling. In this paper the first results and the future plans of this experiment are presented. Results show that both systems (global and limited area) are lacking spread, at least for the verification area in question, which indicates that additional perturbations are desirable, which will be the direction of our future work.