Dynamic diffusion of hybrid rice varieties and the effect on rice production: evidence from China

Abstract

The widespread adoption of hybrid rice varieties in China is a successful example, showing the role of agricultural technology in terms of food security. However, the dynamic diffusion of hybrid rice varieties and their effect on rice production requires further study. Based on data on hybrid rice adoption at the provincial level from 1984 to 2011, we applied the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) models to investigate the spatial and temporal effects of hybrid rice adoption at national and provincial levels. Overall, the effects of hybrid rice adoption on rice production have decreased over time. However, the results showed possible spillover and crowding effects of hybrid rice adoption across provinces. In particular, the development of hybrid rice varieties in Hunan province has had a significant influence on changes in rice yield and the distribution of rice areas in other regions. This study, therefore, serves as a reference in understanding the dynamic distribution of high-yield rice variety adoption in relation to food security and for designing appropriate agricultural extension strategies. However, further research is needed to identify the determinants affecting changes in rice farming in complex environments and associated ecological systems.