Dynamic Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Transformers Considering Operating Conditions and Associated Risks

Abstract

A method for calculating transformer comprehensive risk is proposed according to the operating conditions and associated risks of transformers in this paper. Based on the contingency analysis, a method for dynamic comprehensive evaluation of transformers is established. Considering the temperature rise of transformer winding and oil temperature, a life aging model based on hot spot temperature rise is constructed, then the accelerated deterioration factor is obtained. Based on the contingency analysis, a method for dynamic comprehensive evaluation of transformers is obtained. Collecting the failure rate of the transformer and the loss associated with the equipment is used to estimate the associated risk of the transformer. Finally, under the premise of operating condition correction, the quantitative assessment of transformer comprehensive dynamic risk is given based on the transformer risk loss and the associated risk loss. The effectiveness and reliability of the proposed method are demonstrated by the analysis of an example.