Dynamic business continuity assessment using condition monitoring data

Abstract

Concerns on the impacts of disruptive events of various nature on business operations have increased significantly during the past decades. In this respect, business continuity management (BCM) has been proposed as a comprehensive and proactive framework to prevent the disruptive events from impacting the business operations and reduce their potential damages. Most existing business continuity assessment (BCA) models that numerically quantify the business continuity are time-static, in the sense that the analysis done before operation is not updated to consider the aging and degradation of components and systems which influence their vulnerability and resistance to disruptive events. On the other hand, condition monitoring is more and more adopted in industry to maintain under control the state of components and systems. On this basis, in this work, a dynamic and quantitative method is proposed to integrate in BCA the information on the conditions of components and systems. Specifically, a particle filtering-based method is developed to integrate condition monitoring data on the safety barriers installed for system protection, to predict their reliability as their condition changes due to aging. An installment model and a stochastic price model are also employed to quantify the time-dependent revenues and tolerable losses from operating the system. A simulation model is developed to evaluate dynamic business continuity metrics originally introduced. A case study regarding a nuclear power plant (NPP) risk scenario is worked out to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach.

Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats

“…Finally, recovery is the phase of restoring the back-to-normal situation after the accident/disaster. The four stages of disaster management, thus, match those of resilience management [57] or business continuity [ 54 , 56 ], typical of engineered systems and industrial companies, respectively.…”

Creating the Population’s Situational Awareness of the State/Status and Threats of Covid-19 By Using Modern Information Technology

“…In order to effectively counteract threats and be aware of their gradation, the causes and effects of risks (Xing, Zeng, and Zio, 2019), placed in various areas of the socio-economic life of a country, need to be carefully analysed. Evaluation of the level of risk to lose the health security requires the identification of risk factors and the associated level of security as a logical complement to the estimated risk level.…”

Continuidad del negocio: conceptualización y metodologías de evaluación

“…Se han desarrollado métodos para la evaluar la continuidad de áreas de negocio en el sector petrolero (Zeng y Zio, 2017) y el sector de alimentos (Schätter et al, 2019), entre otros. Xing et al (2019) desarrollaron un modelo de simulación para evaluar las dinámicas de continuidad del negocio introducidas originalmente y determinaron mediante este un escenario de riesgo de una central nuclear para demostrar la aplicabilidad del enfoque propuesto.…”

“…La Organización Internacional del Trabajo (OIT) publicó una guía de BCM en la que indica que se deben considerar tres elementos esenciales: 1) medidas preventivas, 2) arreglos de preparación y 3) opciones de respuesta (International Labour Office, 2011). La BCM se ha comparado con métodos convencionales de gestión de riesgos y se ha demostrado que no solo aporta a la protección del sistema contra el evento disruptivo, sino también al proceso de recuperación durante y después del evento (Xing et al, 2019).…”

“…Las metodologías de evaluación de la continuidad del negocio son, en su gran mayoría, de tipo cuantitativo. Cabe resaltar que estos métodos son estáticos en el tiempo; es decir, dan cuenta del nivel de riesgo en un momento específico, por lo que no consideran el deterioro de los componentes (Xing et al, 2019) o la obsolescencia de la información, los datos y los sistemas. En este sentido, se hace necesaria su actualización permanente.…”