Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation

Abstract

The trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries will increase deforestation in the Mercosur countries and Brazil, in particular, if ratified by member countries. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze how trade, land use, and agricultural production will change as a result of the agreement. We then use a statistical model to spatially allocate the predicted deforestation within the Brazilian Amazon. The models estimate that the agreement will cause additional deforestation in Brazil ranging from 56 to 173 thousand ha to accommodate increases in cropland area, depending on the level of governance, use of double-cropping techniques, and trade elasticity parameters. Most additional deforestation in Amazonia would be clustered near current deforestation hotspot areas. Some hotspots threaten the integrity of Indigenous lands and conservation units. Although a low deforestation scenario with gains in welfare is theoretically possible when high governance and multiple-cropping systems are in place, political challenges remain and cast doubt on Brazil’s ability to rein on illegal deforestation.

Drought variability and land degradation in the Amazon River basin

“…The SDG indicator 15.3.1 revealed several land degradation hotspots in the Amazon basin between 2001 and 2020, most of which were located in the Brazilian states of Pará, Mato Grosso, Amazonas, and Rondônia. This result ties well with previous studies wherein such land degradation hotspots were identified (Anderson et al, 2018;Arima et al, 2021;Marengo et al, 2022).…”

Deforestation as a Systemic Risk: The Case of Brazilian Bovine Leather

“…Currently, additional pressures might be brought on Latin-American forests by the EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement (EMTA), which is being heavily discussed [28,[57][58][59][60][61]. The European Commission and the Mercosur region agreed on a trade-agreement (EMTA) in June 2019, that focuses on removing trade barriers between the two regions.…”

“…They estimate the future deforestation to take place mostly in Pará (39.9%), Rondônia (32.6%) and Mato Grosso (25.2%) in the Amazon biome and Maranhão (31.6%), Piauí (21.3%), and Bahia (20.4%) in Cerrado. The authors also argue that the current Trade and Sustainable Development Chapter (TSDC) of the treaty remains inadequate to address the environmental challenges and deforestation drivers faced in these countries, thus it will create a large systemic drive for increased deforestation [28,60].…”

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“…Стороны достигли политического соглашения в июне 2019 г., в первый год президентства Болсонару, и даже за этот короткий период между инаугурацией и заключением политического соглашения ЕС -МЕРКОСУР темпы вырубки лесов Амазонки многократно возросли, причем треть из них приходилась на заповедные территории, а бразильские природоохранные организации выступили с открытым письмом к Европейской комиссии с требованием прекратить переговоры, гарантировать, что бразильские товары, поступающие на рынки ЕС, не ведут к увеличению вырубки лесов, и требовать у правительства Бразилии доказательств выполнения обязательств страны в рамках Парижского соглашения [FERN, 2019]. По мнению экологов, либерализация сельскохозяйственной продукции, прежде всего мясной, приведет к дальнейшим масштабным вырубкам в дельте Амазонки для создания пастбищных угодий [Arima et al, 2021]. Процесс подписания соглашения был заморожен по инициативе Австрии, Франции и Ирландии, которые заявили, что заблокируют ратификацию, если Болсонару не согласится на внедрение эффективных мер по борьбе с обезлесением и лесными пожарами [The Guardian, 2020].…”