Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP): From Theory to Practice

Abstract

Decision making by flood risk managers is challenged by uncertainty and changing climate risk profiles that have elements of deep uncertainty.• Flood risk managers at a regional level in New Zealand requested better understanding and tools for decision making under conditions of uncertainty and changing conditions. • A game was used to catalyze a process of new knowledge transfer and its uptake in technical assessments and decision making processes. • The understanding enabled DAPP to be used to develop a long-term plan that can accommodate changes in flood frequency from climate change (as projected in three climate change scenarios) over at least 100 years. • Use of "new" economic tools with DAPP facilitated decision making to consider the sensitivity of alternative policies to a range of climate change scenarios, to discount rate, decision review date, and costs and losses, thus addressing deep uncertainty by considering the long-term effects of initial decisions to changing conditions.The original version of this chapter was revised: Author affiliations have been updated. The correction to this chapter can be found at https://doi.

A perspective on the role of uncertainty in sustainability science and engineering

“…(2019) used DAP to derive innovative traffic safety technology in the Netherlands. In a chapter, Lawrence et al. (2019) describes how flood risk managers at a regional level in New Zealand applied the DAPP approach to managing deep uncertainty around flood frequency associated with changing climate, and examines the lessons learned from taking DAPP theory into practice.…”

Anticipating and Adapting to the Future Impacts of Climate Change on the Health, Security and Welfare of Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Communities in Southeastern USA

“…The approach relies on identification of tipping points that lead to physical or socio-economic conditions where existing risk management infrastructure and policies would be overwhelmed. This approach has been adopted in several high-profile applications aimed at adapting to sea level rise, including delta management in the Netherlands [82], the Thames estuary 2100 study [83], and flood risk management in New Zealand [84]. However, the identification of tipping points often relies on quantitative simulation models that may not be available in all contexts, particularly when financial resources and technical expertise are limited.…”

Evaluating Participatory Modeling Methods for Co‐creating Pathways to Sustainability

“…The process is iterated over time as the knowledge about the system and its context increases. Adapted and redesigned fromHaasnoot et al (2013) andLawrence et al (2019).…”